Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 09:00
25 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Coco Gauff
Coco …: 52,8%
Karolina …: 47,2%
¿Por qué Coco Gauff?
UTR 12,77 vs 12,57
(+0,20)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Coco … | Karolina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,53 | 2,50 | 65,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,48 | 2,85 | 67,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,90 | 2,12 | 52,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Coco …: -9,3%
Karolina …: +9,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Coco Gauff
Ranking
#3
UTR Rating
12,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
25/36 = 69,4%
Karolina Muchova
Ranking
#19
UTR Rating
12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#18
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 16,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,3333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,8458 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 4340,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 4,5796 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,0854 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9730 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,4444 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,8649 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 67,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,4146 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3889 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,2965 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,3203 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,7529 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -10,8101 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 15,1586 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4947 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6609 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0982 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7778 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,0632 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,7933 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 8,4531 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1784 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1646 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 4,5796 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5612 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5376 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,5785 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23927
API ID
15345451
Gamdom ID
589764
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23927,
"api_id": 15345451,
"gamdom_id": 589764,
"player1": "Coco Gauff",
"player2": "Karolina Muchova",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-25T05:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.48,
"p2": 2.85
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.46,
"p2": 2.7
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5276,
"prob_p2": 0.4724,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5276,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 3,
"utr_singles": 12.77,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.44444444444444,
"wr_surface_wins": 25,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 19,
"utr_singles": 12.57,
"utr_ranking": 18,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.77,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.57,
"ranking": 18,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5611764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.5376470588235295,
"utr_diff": 0.1999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 6.333333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 4340,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -10.810135135135141,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.44444444444444,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
"utr_advantage": 1.5785319652722913,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 6,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.8458266904983307,
"rank_advantage": 16,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7777777777777778,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 4.579579579579573,
"bp_converted_diff": 15.15855855855856,
"p1_surface_matches": 36,
"p2_surface_matches": 37,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.2965240240240163,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6608996539792388,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.098159509202454,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.49474474474474484,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.3202702702702567,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3888888888888889,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.06318709908049,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.793320699993465,
"surface_rank_synergy": 8.4531102192491,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.752927927927928,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.972972972972973,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 4.579579579579573,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1784444444444444,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1646486486486487,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.085365853658537,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}