Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 10:10
25 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Zverev
Alexander …: 62,3%
Francisco …: 37,7%
¿Por qué Alexander Zverev?
UTR 15,74 vs 15,35
(+0,39)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alexander … | Francisco … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,39 | 3,25 | 71,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,61 | 2,65 | 62,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alexander …: -10,6%
Francisco …: +10,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexander Zverev
Ranking
#3
UTR Rating
15,74 Pro
UTR Ranking
#10
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
32/45 = 71,1%
Francisco Cerundolo
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking
#43
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
15/25 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 7,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,9459 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3070,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 11,1111 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 9,8698 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,8000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 71,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 58,6207 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 45,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4222 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 8,7371 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,9800 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,1200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,0067 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,4933 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,9556 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,3851 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0182 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7391 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4375 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,2014 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,2707 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 21,6212 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1931 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1180 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 22,2222 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9106 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,5088 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23946
API ID
15345278
Gamdom ID
589728
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23946,
"api_id": 15345278,
"gamdom_id": 589728,
"player1": "Alexander Zverev",
"player2": "Francisco Cerundolo",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-25T06:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.39,
"p2": 3.25
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.35,
"p2": 3.16
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6227,
"prob_p2": 0.3773,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6227,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 3,
"utr_singles": 15.74,
"utr_ranking": 10,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.11111111111111,
"wr_surface_wins": 32,
"wr_surface_total": 45,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 15.35,
"utr_ranking": 43,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 10,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.35,
"ranking": 43,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
"utr_diff": 0.39000000000000057,
"rank_ratio": 7.0,
"h2h_matches": 3,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 3070,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.006666666666675,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 71.11111111111111,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": 2.5088452878739185,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 16,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.9459101490553132,
"rank_advantage": 18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 11.111111111111114,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.493333333333339,
"p1_surface_matches": 45,
"p2_surface_matches": 25,
"serve_quality_diff": 8.737111111111105,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0182481751824817,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7391304347826086,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.955555555555555,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.980000000000004,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.19999999999999998,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.38514973195408625,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.4222222222222222,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.20141296423635,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.270662956859454,
"surface_rank_synergy": 21.621223878392374,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.38775510204081,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.620689655172406,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.1199999999999974,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.8,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 22.22222222222223,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19311111111111112,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.118,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.869809992962706,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}