Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Zverev
Alexander …: 62,3% Francisco …: 37,7%
¿Por qué Alexander Zverev?
UTR 15,74 vs 15,35 (+0,39) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alexander … Francisco … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,39 3,25 71,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,61 2,65 62,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Alexander …: -10,6% Francisco …: +10,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexander Zverev
Ranking #3
UTR Rating 15,74 Pro
UTR Ranking #10
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 32/45 = 71,1%
Francisco Cerundolo
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #43
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 15/25 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 18,0000
rank_ratio 7,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,9459
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 3070,0000
best_rank_diff 16,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,1111
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,8698
surface_matches_ratio 1,8000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 71,1111
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 69,3878
surface_wr_p2_stable 58,6207
p1_surface_matches 45,0000
p2_surface_matches 25,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4222
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8333
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 8,7371
first_serve_won_diff 4,9800
second_serve_won_diff 1,1200
bp_saved_diff 4,0067
bp_converted_diff -7,4933
aces_per_match_diff 2,9556
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 3,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,3333
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,3851
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0182
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7391
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 9,2014
serve_consistency_p2 10,2707
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 21,6212
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1931
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1180
elite_surface_amplifier 22,2222
UTR
utr_diff 0,3900
utr_p1 0,9106
utr_p2 0,8647
utr_advantage 2,5088
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23946
API ID 15345278
Gamdom ID 589728
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23946,
    "api_id": 15345278,
    "gamdom_id": 589728,
    "player1": "Alexander Zverev",
    "player2": "Francisco Cerundolo",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-25T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.39,
      "p2": 3.25
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.35,
      "p2": 3.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6227,
    "prob_p2": 0.3773,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6227,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 3,
      "utr_singles": 15.74,
      "utr_ranking": 10,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.11111111111111,
      "wr_surface_wins": 32,
      "wr_surface_total": 45,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 15.35,
      "utr_ranking": 43,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.74,
      "ranking": 10,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.35,
      "ranking": 43,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9105882352941177,
    "utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_diff": 0.39000000000000057,
    "rank_ratio": 7.0,
    "h2h_matches": 3,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 3070,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.006666666666675,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 71.11111111111111,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": 2.5088452878739185,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 16,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.9459101490553132,
    "rank_advantage": 18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.111111111111114,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.493333333333339,
    "p1_surface_matches": 45,
    "p2_surface_matches": 25,
    "serve_quality_diff": 8.737111111111105,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0182481751824817,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7391304347826086,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.955555555555555,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.980000000000004,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.19999999999999998,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.38514973195408625,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.4222222222222222,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.20141296423635,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.270662956859454,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 21.621223878392374,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.38775510204081,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.620689655172406,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.1199999999999974,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.8,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 22.22222222222223,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19311111111111112,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.118,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.869809992962706,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}