Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 12:10
25 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alexander …: 35,4%
Alex …: 64,6%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,95 vs 15,89
(+0,06)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alexander … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,55 | 1,57 | 39,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,82 | 1,55 | 35,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alexander …: -5,9%
Alex …: +5,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexander Bublik
Ranking
#10
UTR Rating
15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#4
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
20/36 = 55,6%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5108 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1015,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -15,3535 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -14,4915 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6545 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,4915 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1111 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 15,2119 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,4602 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,6903 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,9108 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,4125 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 7,6444 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9655 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8100 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4375 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5882 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,4926 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,8040 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 7,8430 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0596 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2051 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9353 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9282 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,3769 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23959
API ID
15345281
Gamdom ID
589709
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23959,
"api_id": 15345281,
"gamdom_id": 589709,
"player1": "Alexander Bublik",
"player2": "Alex de Minaur",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-25T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.55,
"p2": 1.57
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.43,
"p2": 1.55
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.354,
"prob_p2": 0.646,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.646,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 10,
"utr_singles": 15.95,
"utr_ranking": 4,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 4,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
"utr_diff": 0.05999999999999872,
"rank_ratio": 0.6,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -1015,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.910808080808096,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
"utr_advantage": 0.37688442211054474,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -4,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5108256237659907,
"rank_advantage": -4,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -15.35353535353535,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.412525252525249,
"p1_surface_matches": 36,
"p2_surface_matches": 55,
"serve_quality_diff": 15.211898989898984,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9655172413793104,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
"aces_per_match_diff": 7.644444444444445,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.460202020202004,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.492630368327093,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.8040057467525,
"surface_rank_synergy": 7.842979273982886,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.00000000000001,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.690303030303028,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6545454545454545,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.059555555555555584,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2050909090909091,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.49152542372881,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}