Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alexander …: 35,4% Alex …: 64,6%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,95 vs 15,89 (+0,06) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alexander … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,55 1,57 39,2%
IA Fair Odds 2,82 1,55 35,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Alexander …: -5,9% Alex …: +5,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexander Bublik
Ranking #10
UTR Rating 15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #4
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 20/36 = 55,6%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -4,0000
rank_ratio 0,6000
log_rank_ratio -0,5108
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -1015,0000
best_rank_diff -4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -15,3535
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,4915
surface_matches_ratio 0,6545
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,5556
surface_wr_p2 70,9091
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,4915
p1_surface_matches 36,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 15,2119
first_serve_won_diff 4,4602
second_serve_won_diff -7,6903
bp_saved_diff 6,9108
bp_converted_diff -3,4125
aces_per_match_diff 7,6444
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9655
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8100
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5882
serve_consistency_p1 5,4926
serve_consistency_p2 5,8040
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,8430
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0596
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2051
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0600
utr_p1 0,9353
utr_p2 0,9282
utr_advantage 0,3769
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23959
API ID 15345281
Gamdom ID 589709
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23959,
    "api_id": 15345281,
    "gamdom_id": 589709,
    "player1": "Alexander Bublik",
    "player2": "Alex de Minaur",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-25T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.55,
      "p2": 1.57
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.43,
      "p2": 1.55
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.354,
    "prob_p2": 0.646,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.646,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 10,
      "utr_singles": 15.95,
      "utr_ranking": 4,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.95,
      "ranking": 4,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9352941176470587,
    "utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
    "utr_diff": 0.05999999999999872,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -1015,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.910808080808096,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": 0.37688442211054474,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5108256237659907,
    "rank_advantage": -4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -15.35353535353535,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.412525252525249,
    "p1_surface_matches": 36,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": 15.211898989898984,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9655172413793104,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 7.644444444444445,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.460202020202004,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.492630368327093,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.8040057467525,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.842979273982886,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.00000000000001,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.690303030303028,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6545454545454545,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.059555555555555584,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2050909090909091,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.49152542372881,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}