Elina Svitolina vs Mirra Andreeva
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
25 Ene 2026, 14:05
25 Ene 2026, 14:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirra Andreeva
Elina …: 27,8%
Mirra …: 72,2%
¿Por qué Mirra Andreeva?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,64
(+0,02)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elina … | Mirra … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,50 | 38,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,60 | 1,55 | 38,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,59 | 1,39 | 27,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elina …: -8,5%
Mirra …: +8,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
17/27 = 63,0%
Mirra Andreeva
Ranking
#7
UTR Rating
12,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#10
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -5,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5833 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5390 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1875,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -12,0370 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -10,3853 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8438 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,9630 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,2903 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 72,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2593 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,7283 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,7741 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,9000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,8889 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,7741 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,1273 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9645 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7446 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,0493 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,4907 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 6,4879 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1346 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2450 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5482 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5459 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,1581 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23960
API ID
15345457
Gamdom ID
589779
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23960,
"api_id": 15345457,
"gamdom_id": 589779,
"player1": "Elina Svitolina",
"player2": "Mirra Andreeva",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-25T10:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.6,
"p2": 1.55
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.55,
"p2": 1.51
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2784,
"prob_p2": 0.7216,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7216,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 12.66,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 7,
"utr_singles": 12.64,
"utr_ranking": 10,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.66,
"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.64,
"ranking": 10,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.548235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.5458823529411765,
"utr_diff": 0.019999999999999574,
"rank_ratio": 0.5833333333333334,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -1875,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.8888888888888857,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 7,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.1581027667984156,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5389965007326869,
"rank_advantage": -5,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": -12.037037037037038,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.774074074074079,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.7283333333333246,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7445652173913043,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.12731481481481488,
"combined_confidence": 0.95,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.774074074074079,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.049266005112909,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.4907061879942365,
"surface_rank_synergy": 6.487920842152714,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.899999999999999,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.84375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13462962962962965,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.245,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.385304659498201,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}