Matthew Thomson vs Pablo Paternostro
UTR PTT Bonita Springs Men +H 01 | Clay | Semifinals
24 Ene 2026, 20:00
24 Ene 2026, 20:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matthew Thomson
Matthew …: 57,0%
Pablo …: 43,0%
¿Por qué Matthew Thomson?
UTR 12,00 vs 11,00
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Matthew … | Pablo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,36 | 3,00 | 73,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,28 | 3,05 | 78,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,76 | 2,32 | 57,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Matthew …: -11,8%
Pablo …: +11,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matthew Thomson
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#2357
Forma L5
75% (4p)
Forma L10
75% (4p)
WR Clay
0/0 = 0,0%
Pablo Paternostro
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
11,00 General
UTR Ranking
#3925
Forma L5
50% (4p)
Forma L10
50% (4p)
WR Clay
0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2500 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 69,3878 | |
| momentum_p2 | 51,0204 | |
| momentum_diff | 18,3673 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 13,7755 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,8750 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,2123 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4706 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23978
API ID
15419358
Gamdom ID
627730
Torneo
UTR PTT Bonita Springs Men +H 01
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23978,
"api_id": 15419358,
"gamdom_id": 627730,
"player1": "Matthew Thomson",
"player2": "Pablo Paternostro",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Bonita Springs Men +H 01",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-24T16:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3636363636363638,
"p2": 3.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.05
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.07
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5697,
"prob_p2": 0.4303,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5697,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 2357,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 75.0,
"form_l10_wr": 75.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 11.0,
"utr_ranking": 3925,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 2357,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.0,
"ranking": 3925,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
"utr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 69.38775510204083,
"momentum_p2": 51.02040816326531,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.25,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 18.36734693877552,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.874951324820316,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.21226772073784,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 13.775510204081641,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}