Matthew Thomson vs Pablo Paternostro
UTR PTT Bonita Springs Men +H 01 | Clay | Semifinals
24 Ene 2026, 20:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matthew Thomson
Matthew …: 57,0% Pablo …: 43,0%
¿Por qué Matthew Thomson?
UTR 12,00 vs 11,00 — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Matthew … Pablo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,00 73,3%
Gamdom 1,28 3,05 78,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,76 2,32 57,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Matthew …: -11,8% Pablo …: +11,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matthew Thomson
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #2357
Forma L5 75% (4p)
Forma L10 75% (4p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Pablo Paternostro
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 11,00 General
UTR Ranking #3925
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2500
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 69,3878
momentum_p2 51,0204
momentum_diff 18,3673
weighted_momentum_diff 13,7755
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,8750
serve_consistency_p2 10,2123
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4706
utr_p2 0,4706
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23978
API ID 15419358
Gamdom ID 627730
Torneo UTR PTT Bonita Springs Men +H 01
Superficie Clay
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23978,
    "api_id": 15419358,
    "gamdom_id": 627730,
    "player1": "Matthew Thomson",
    "player2": "Pablo Paternostro",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Bonita Springs Men +H 01",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-24T16:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3636363636363638,
      "p2": 3.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.05
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.07
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5697,
    "prob_p2": 0.4303,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5697,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 2357,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 11.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3925,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 2357,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.0,
      "ranking": 3925,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 69.38775510204083,
    "momentum_p2": 51.02040816326531,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.25,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 18.36734693877552,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.874951324820316,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.21226772073784,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.775510204081641,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}