Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 04:30
26 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
Jessica …: 41,9%
Madison …: 58,1%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,50
(+0,25)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jessica … | Madison … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,30 | 61,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,64 | 2,39 | 61,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,38 | 1,72 | 41,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jessica …: -16,7%
Madison …: +16,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
34/49 = 69,4%
Madison Keys
Ranking
#9
UTR Rating
12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4055 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1342,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -5,6122 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -4,2977 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5313 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 67,9245 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 72,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 49,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3878 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,7410 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0143 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,8607 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,3911 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,5705 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,0032 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2132 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7788 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3571 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,7623 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,0584 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,2756 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1909 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2530 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5588 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5294 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,9802 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24117
API ID
15345452
Gamdom ID
589767
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24117,
"api_id": 15345452,
"gamdom_id": 589767,
"player1": "Jessica Pegula",
"player2": "Madison Keys",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-26T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.64,
"p2": 2.39
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.59,
"p2": 2.33
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4194,
"prob_p2": 0.5806,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5806,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 12.75,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 49,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 9,
"utr_singles": 12.5,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 7,
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.25,
"rank_ratio": 1.5,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 1342,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.3910714285714363,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.9801980198019802,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.4054651081081644,
"rank_advantage": 3,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -5.612244897959187,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.570535714285718,
"p1_surface_matches": 49,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.7410204081632656,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.0031887755102042,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.014285714285719564,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.762323419366496,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.058352780642736,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.2755694842805156,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.8607142857142875,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.53125,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19087755102040815,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.253,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.297693920335419,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
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"feature_importance": {}
}