Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
Jessica …: 41,9% Madison …: 58,1%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,50 (+0,25) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jessica … Madison … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
Gamdom 1,64 2,39 61,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,38 1,72 41,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Jessica …: -16,7% Madison …: +16,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Madison Keys
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 3,0000
rank_ratio 1,5000
log_rank_ratio 0,4055
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 1342,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,6122
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,2977
surface_matches_ratio 1,5313
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,3878
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 67,9245
surface_wr_p2_stable 72,2222
p1_surface_matches 49,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3878
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,7410
first_serve_won_diff 0,0143
second_serve_won_diff 0,8607
bp_saved_diff 2,3911
bp_converted_diff 2,5705
aces_per_match_diff -2,0032
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2132
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7788
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3571
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 13,7623
serve_consistency_p2 5,0584
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,2756
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1909
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2530
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2500
utr_p1 0,5588
utr_p2 0,5294
utr_advantage 1,9802
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24117
API ID 15345452
Gamdom ID 589767
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24117,
    "api_id": 15345452,
    "gamdom_id": 589767,
    "player1": "Jessica Pegula",
    "player2": "Madison Keys",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-26T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.64,
      "p2": 2.39
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.59,
      "p2": 2.33
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4194,
    "prob_p2": 0.5806,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5806,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5294117647058824,
    "utr_diff": 0.25,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 1342,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.3910714285714363,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.9801980198019802,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.4054651081081644,
    "rank_advantage": 3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.612244897959187,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.570535714285718,
    "p1_surface_matches": 49,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.7410204081632656,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.0031887755102042,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.014285714285719564,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.762323419366496,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.058352780642736,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.2755694842805156,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.8607142857142875,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.53125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19087755102040815,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.253,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.297693920335419,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}