Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 11:10
26 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jannik Sinner
Luciano …: 11,1%
Jannik …: 88,9%
¿Por qué Jannik Sinner?
UTR 15,11 vs 16,39
(-1,28)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luciano … | Jannik … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 15,00 | 1,03 | 6,7% |
| Gamdom | 21,00 | 1,02 | 4,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 9,01 | 1,12 | 11,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luciano …: +4,7%
Jannik …: -4,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luciano Darderi
Ranking
#25
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#80
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
6/20 = 30,0%
Jannik Sinner
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
16,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
39/42 = 92,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -23,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0800 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,5257 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -9901,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -23,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -62,8571 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -46,4976 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4762 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -6,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 92,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 89,1304 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,4000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,1031 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -10,9321 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -8,6314 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -18,6136 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,5271 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,4762 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7658 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0758 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,3253 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,7327 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 158,7601 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1770 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,4056 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8365 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9871 | |
| utr_advantage | -8,1270 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24118
API ID
15345276
Gamdom ID
589729
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24118,
"api_id": 15345276,
"gamdom_id": 589729,
"player1": "Luciano Darderi",
"player2": "Jannik Sinner",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-26T07:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 15.0,
"p2": 1.03
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 21.0,
"p2": 1.02
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 17.24,
"p2": 1.02
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.111,
"prob_p2": 0.889,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.889,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 25,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 80,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 30.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 16.39,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 92.85714285714286,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 80,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9870588235294119,
"utr_diff": -1.2800000000000011,
"rank_ratio": 0.08,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -9901,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -18.613571428571433,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 92.85714285714286,
"utr_advantage": -8.126984126984134,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -23,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.5257286443082556,
"rank_advantage": -23,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -62.85714285714286,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.5271428571428558,
"p1_surface_matches": 20,
"p2_surface_matches": 42,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.103119047619046,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7657657657657657,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.075801749271137,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.4761904761904763,
"combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -10.932142857142864,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.325332047466755,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.732743314271422,
"surface_rank_synergy": 158.7600862136618,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 89.13043478260869,
"second_serve_won_diff": -8.631428571428565,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.47619047619047616,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.177,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.4055714285714286,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -46.49758454106279,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -6
},
"feature_importance": {}
}