Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jannik Sinner
Luciano …: 11,1% Jannik …: 88,9%
¿Por qué Jannik Sinner?
UTR 15,11 vs 16,39 (-1,28) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luciano … Jannik … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 15,00 1,03 6,7%
Gamdom 21,00 1,02 4,8%
IA Fair Odds 9,01 1,12 11,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Luciano …: +4,7% Jannik …: -4,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luciano Darderi
Ranking #25
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #80
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 6/20 = 30,0%
Jannik Sinner
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 16,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 39/42 = 92,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -23,0000
rank_ratio 0,0800
log_rank_ratio -2,5257
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -9901,0000
best_rank_diff -23,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -62,8571
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -46,4976
surface_matches_ratio 0,4762
surface_tournaments_won_diff -6,0000
surface_wr_p1 30,0000
surface_wr_p2 92,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 33,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 89,1304
p1_surface_matches 20,0000
p2_surface_matches 42,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,1031
first_serve_won_diff -10,9321
second_serve_won_diff -8,6314
bp_saved_diff -18,6136
bp_converted_diff -0,5271
aces_per_match_diff 0,4762
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7658
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0758
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,3253
serve_consistency_p2 7,7327
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 158,7601
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1770
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,4056
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,2800
utr_p1 0,8365
utr_p2 0,9871
utr_advantage -8,1270
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24118
API ID 15345276
Gamdom ID 589729
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24118,
    "api_id": 15345276,
    "gamdom_id": 589729,
    "player1": "Luciano Darderi",
    "player2": "Jannik Sinner",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-26T07:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 15.0,
      "p2": 1.03
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 21.0,
      "p2": 1.02
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 17.24,
      "p2": 1.02
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.111,
    "prob_p2": 0.889,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.889,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 25,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 80,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 16.39,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 92.85714285714286,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 80,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 16.39,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8364705882352941,
    "utr_p2": 0.9870588235294119,
    "utr_diff": -1.2800000000000011,
    "rank_ratio": 0.08,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -9901,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -18.613571428571433,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 92.85714285714286,
    "utr_advantage": -8.126984126984134,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -23,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.5257286443082556,
    "rank_advantage": -23,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -62.85714285714286,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.5271428571428558,
    "p1_surface_matches": 20,
    "p2_surface_matches": 42,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.103119047619046,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7657657657657657,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.075801749271137,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.4761904761904763,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -10.932142857142864,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.325332047466755,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.732743314271422,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 158.7600862136618,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 89.13043478260869,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.631428571428565,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.47619047619047616,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.177,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.4055714285714286,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -46.49758454106279,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -6
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}