Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 07:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 53,0% Taylor …: 47,0%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,71 (+0,06) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Taylor … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 2,16 1,76 46,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,89 2,13 53,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: +3,0% Taylor …: -3,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Taylor Fritz
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 15,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #11
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 34/50 = 68,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 4,0000
rank_ratio 1,8000
log_rank_ratio 0,5878
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 265,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,5405
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,1301
surface_matches_ratio 0,7400
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 68,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 50,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -15,1973
first_serve_won_diff -6,8502
second_serve_won_diff 3,8906
bp_saved_diff -8,5134
bp_converted_diff -1,0677
aces_per_match_diff -6,4697
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,1540
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2213
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5172
serve_consistency_p1 4,9689
serve_consistency_p2 1,9373
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -5,0200
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0906
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1840
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0600
utr_p1 0,9141
utr_p2 0,9071
utr_advantage 0,3812
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24120
API ID 15345270
Gamdom ID 589727
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24120,
    "api_id": 15345270,
    "gamdom_id": 589727,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Taylor Fritz",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-26T03:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.16,
      "p2": 1.76
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5302,
    "prob_p2": 0.4698,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5302,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 15.71,
      "utr_ranking": 11,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 50,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.71,
      "ranking": 11,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9141176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.9070588235294119,
    "utr_diff": 0.05999999999999872,
    "rank_ratio": 1.8,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 265,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -8.513351351351353,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.3811944091486577,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.5877866649021191,
    "rank_advantage": 4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5172413793103449,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.54054054054054,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.0677297297297272,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 50,
    "serve_quality_diff": -15.197345945945955,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.221276595744681,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.46972972972973,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.850162162162164,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.968926733980778,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 1.9373268819222098,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -5.020015840785665,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.89064864864865,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.74,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.15399999999999636,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09059459459459462,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18400000000000005,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.130081300813004,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}