Maddison Inglis vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Maddison …: 8,1% Iga …: 91,9%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 11,73 vs 12,90 (-1,17) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maddison … Iga … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 15,00 1,03 6,7%
Gamdom 18,00 1,03 5,6%
IA Fair Odds 12,30 1,09 8,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Maddison …: +1,7% Iga …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maddison Inglis
Ranking #168
UTR Rating 11,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #173
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 18/33 = 54,5%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -166,0000
rank_ratio 0,0119
log_rank_ratio -4,4308
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -7910,0000
best_rank_diff -111,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -24,3007
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -22,7317
surface_matches_ratio 0,6346
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 54,5455
surface_wr_p2 78,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,0541
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,7857
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 52,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0909
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,3857
first_serve_won_diff -0,9442
second_serve_won_diff -0,0577
bp_saved_diff -5,5481
bp_converted_diff -8,8481
aces_per_match_diff 0,0519
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0586
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 5,5326
serve_consistency_p2 8,0506
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 107,6719
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2115
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1225
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,1700
utr_p1 0,4388
utr_p2 0,5765
utr_advantage -9,5006
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24121
API ID 15345449
Gamdom ID 589786
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24121,
    "api_id": 15345449,
    "gamdom_id": 589786,
    "player1": "Maddison Inglis",
    "player2": "Iga Swiatek",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-26T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 15.0,
      "p2": 1.03
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 18.0,
      "p2": 1.03
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 19.18,
      "p2": 1.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0813,
    "prob_p2": 0.9187,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9187,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 168,
      "utr_singles": 11.73,
      "utr_ranking": 173,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
      "wr_surface_wins": 41,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.73,
      "ranking": 173,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4388235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.5764705882352942,
    "utr_diff": -1.17,
    "rank_ratio": 0.011904761904761904,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -7910,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.54807692307692,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
    "utr_advantage": -9.500609013398293,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -111,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -4.430816798843313,
    "rank_advantage": -166,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -24.3006993006993,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.848076923076917,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 52,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.38569347319347,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.0518648018648018,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.9442307692307708,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.09090909090909091,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.532618395288144,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.050576492150642,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 107.67194668517841,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.054054054054056,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.0576923076923066,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6346153846153846,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21145454545454545,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1224615384615384,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -22.731660231660236,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}