Maddison Inglis vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 12:10
26 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Maddison …: 8,1%
Iga …: 91,9%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 11,73 vs 12,90
(-1,17)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maddison … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 15,00 | 1,03 | 6,7% |
| Gamdom | 18,00 | 1,03 | 5,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 12,30 | 1,09 | 8,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maddison …: +1,7%
Iga …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maddison Inglis
Ranking
#168
UTR Rating
11,73 Pro
UTR Ranking
#173
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
18/33 = 54,5%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -166,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0119 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -4,4308 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -7910,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -111,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -24,3007 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -22,7317 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6346 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,0541 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0909 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,3857 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,9442 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,0577 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,5481 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,8481 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0519 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,5326 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,0506 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 107,6719 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2115 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1225 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,1700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4388 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5765 | |
| utr_advantage | -9,5006 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24121
API ID
15345449
Gamdom ID
589786
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24121,
"api_id": 15345449,
"gamdom_id": 589786,
"player1": "Maddison Inglis",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-26T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 15.0,
"p2": 1.03
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 18.0,
"p2": 1.03
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 19.18,
"p2": 1.01
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.0813,
"prob_p2": 0.9187,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.9187,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 168,
"utr_singles": 11.73,
"utr_ranking": 173,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 173,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5764705882352942,
"utr_diff": -1.17,
"rank_ratio": 0.011904761904761904,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -7910,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.54807692307692,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": -9.500609013398293,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -111,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -4.430816798843313,
"rank_advantage": -166,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -24.3006993006993,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.848076923076917,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.38569347319347,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.0518648018648018,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.9442307692307708,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.09090909090909091,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.532618395288144,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.050576492150642,
"surface_rank_synergy": 107.67194668517841,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.054054054054056,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.0576923076923066,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6346153846153846,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21145454545454545,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1224615384615384,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -22.731660231660236,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}