Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 09:30
26 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 89,1%
Elise …: 10,9%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,45
(+0,53)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Elise … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,17 | 5,60 | 85,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,12 | 9,17 | 89,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: +8,1%
Elise …: -8,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Elise Mertens
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 16,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,2000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,4351 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3894,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 9,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 23,0094 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 21,3636 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,8966 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5455 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,7794 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,5855 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,9200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,9455 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,2855 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,9053 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,3603 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,5255 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 33,0204 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2658 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0677 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 46,0188 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5235 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,1683 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24140
API ID
15345445
Gamdom ID
589766
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24140,
"api_id": 15345445,
"gamdom_id": 589766,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Elise Mertens",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-26T05:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.15,
"p2": 5.39
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.891,
"prob_p2": 0.109,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.891,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 12.45,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.45,
"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5235294117647058,
"utr_diff": 0.5300000000000011,
"rank_ratio": 4.2,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 3894,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.945454545454552,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
"utr_advantage": 4.168305151395998,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 9,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.4350845252893227,
"rank_advantage": 16,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 23.009404388714742,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.2854545454545416,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.779385579937298,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8181818181818182,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.905329153605015,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.585454545454539,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.360336193249875,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.525530979522819,
"surface_rank_synergy": 33.02044017436876,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.9200000000000017,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.896551724137931,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 46.018808777429484,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.26581818181818184,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06772413793103449,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.36363636363637,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}