Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 89,1% Elise …: 10,9%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,45 (+0,53) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena … Elise … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,17 5,00 85,5%
Gamdom 1,17 5,60 85,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,12 9,17 89,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena …: +8,1% Elise …: -8,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Elise Mertens
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 16,0000
rank_ratio 4,2000
log_rank_ratio 1,4351
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 3894,0000
best_rank_diff 9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 23,0094
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 21,3636
surface_matches_ratio 1,8966
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,1818
surface_wr_p2 55,1724
surface_wr_p1_stable 76,2712
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5636
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,7794
first_serve_won_diff 5,5855
second_serve_won_diff 3,9200
bp_saved_diff 9,9455
bp_converted_diff 2,2855
aces_per_match_diff 1,9053
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8980
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6471
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,3603
serve_consistency_p2 4,5255
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 33,0204
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2658
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0677
elite_surface_amplifier 46,0188
UTR
utr_diff 0,5300
utr_p1 0,5859
utr_p2 0,5235
utr_advantage 4,1683
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24140
API ID 15345445
Gamdom ID 589766
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24140,
    "api_id": 15345445,
    "gamdom_id": 589766,
    "player1": "Elena Rybakina",
    "player2": "Elise Mertens",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-26T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.15,
      "p2": 5.39
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.891,
    "prob_p2": 0.109,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.891,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 12.45,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.45,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.5235294117647058,
    "utr_diff": 0.5300000000000011,
    "rank_ratio": 4.2,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 3894,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.945454545454552,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
    "utr_advantage": 4.168305151395998,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 9,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.4350845252893227,
    "rank_advantage": 16,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 23.009404388714742,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.2854545454545416,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.779385579937298,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8181818181818182,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.905329153605015,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.585454545454539,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.360336193249875,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.525530979522819,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 33.02044017436876,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.9200000000000017,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.896551724137931,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 46.018808777429484,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.26581818181818184,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06772413793103449,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.36363636363637,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}