Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 13:50
26 Ene 2026, 13:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ben Shelton
Ben …: 56,1%
Casper …: 44,0%
¿Por qué Ben Shelton?
UTR 15,65 vs 15,57
(+0,08)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ben … | Casper … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,55 | 2,60 | 64,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,78 | 2,28 | 56,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Ben …: -4,2%
Casper …: +4,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ben Shelton
Ranking
#7
UTR Rating
15,65 Pro
UTR Ranking
#14
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Casper Ruud
Ranking
#13
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 6,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,8571 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,6190 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1205,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -3,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,3810 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,8214 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2727 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,0435 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,8649 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,3270 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,4130 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,6229 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,7567 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,3459 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,1537 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9777 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0465 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5517 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,3164 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,1606 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,4739 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1369 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1727 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -2,3810 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9000 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8906 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,5125 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24147
API ID
15345287
Gamdom ID
589710
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24147,
"api_id": 15345287,
"gamdom_id": 589710,
"player1": "Ben Shelton",
"player2": "Casper Ruud",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-26T09:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.55,
"p2": 2.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.48
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5605,
"prob_p2": 0.4395,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5605,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 15.65,
"utr_ranking": 14,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 13,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
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"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.08000000000000007,
"rank_ratio": 1.8571428571428572,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 1205,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.7567099567099547,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": 0.5124919923126205,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -3,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.6190392084062235,
"rank_advantage": 6,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5517241379310345,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.3809523809523654,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.345887445887442,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.326969696969698,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9776536312849162,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.153679653679654,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.412987012987017,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.31635873924325,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.160554133993298,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.4739028771576654,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.6229437229437167,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2727272727272727,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -2.3809523809523654,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1368571428571429,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17266666666666652,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.8213866039953004,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}