Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 16
26 Ene 2026, 13:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ben Shelton
Ben …: 56,1% Casper …: 44,0%
¿Por qué Ben Shelton?
UTR 15,65 vs 15,57 (+0,08) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ben … Casper … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,38 63,7%
Gamdom 1,55 2,60 64,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,78 2,28 56,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Ben …: -4,2% Casper …: +4,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ben Shelton
Ranking #7
UTR Rating 15,65 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 27/42 = 64,3%
Casper Ruud
Ranking #13
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 6,0000
rank_ratio 1,8571
log_rank_ratio 0,6190
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1205,0000
best_rank_diff -3,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -2,3810
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,8214
surface_matches_ratio 1,2727
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,0435
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,8649
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,3270
first_serve_won_diff 2,4130
second_serve_won_diff -0,6229
bp_saved_diff 0,7567
bp_converted_diff -3,3459
aces_per_match_diff 3,1537
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9777
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0465
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5517
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 11,3164
serve_consistency_p2 9,1606
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,4739
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1369
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1727
elite_surface_amplifier -2,3810
UTR
utr_diff 0,0800
utr_p1 0,9000
utr_p2 0,8906
utr_advantage 0,5125
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24147
API ID 15345287
Gamdom ID 589710
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24147,
    "api_id": 15345287,
    "gamdom_id": 589710,
    "player1": "Ben Shelton",
    "player2": "Casper Ruud",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-26T09:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5699999999999998,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.55,
      "p2": 2.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.48
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5605,
    "prob_p2": 0.4395,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5605,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 7,
      "utr_singles": 15.65,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 13,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.65,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9,
    "utr_p2": 0.8905882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.08000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 1.8571428571428572,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1205,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.7567099567099547,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": 0.5124919923126205,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -3,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6190392084062235,
    "rank_advantage": 6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5517241379310345,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -2.3809523809523654,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.345887445887442,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.326969696969698,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9776536312849162,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.153679653679654,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.412987012987017,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.31635873924325,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.160554133993298,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.4739028771576654,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.04347826086957,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.6229437229437167,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2727272727272727,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -2.3809523809523654,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1368571428571429,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17266666666666652,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.8213866039953004,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}