Sara Saito vs Mariia Tkacheva
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles | Hard | Round of 32
27 Ene 2026, 14:55
27 Ene 2026, 14:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sara Saito
Sara …: 54,7%
Mariia …: 45,3%
¿Por qué Sara Saito?
UTR 11,33 vs 11,39
(-0,06)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sara … | Mariia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,40 | 2,75 | 71,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,43 | 2,95 | 69,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,83 | 2,21 | 54,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sara …: -11,5%
Mariia …: +11,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sara Saito
Ranking
#262
UTR Rating
11,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#335
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
10% (10p)
WR Hard
3/7 = 42,9%
Mariia Tkacheva
Ranking
#480
UTR Rating
11,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#311
Forma L5
0% (2p)
Forma L10
0% (2p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 218,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,8321 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,6054 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 155,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 116,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 14,2303 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 7,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 41,0490 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3467 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 52,2971 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 60,5000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 57,3000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 56,7000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 50,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,4286 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 1,4271 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 302,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,2549 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,9286 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 25,9475 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2894 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2820 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,3918 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,3988 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,5282 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24156
API ID
15423230
Gamdom ID
628643
Torneo
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24156,
"api_id": 15423230,
"gamdom_id": 628643,
"player1": "Sara Saito",
"player2": "Mariia Tkacheva",
"tournament": "WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-27T10:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.43,
"p2": 2.95
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.39,
"p2": 2.83
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5474,
"prob_p2": 0.4526,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5474,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 262,
"utr_singles": 11.33,
"utr_ranking": 335,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 10.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 480,
"utr_singles": 11.39,
"utr_ranking": 311,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 335,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.39,
"ranking": 311,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.3988235294117648,
"utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 1.83206106870229,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 2.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 155,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 56.7,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -0.5281690140845114,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 116,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.6054416001408397,
"rank_advantage": 218,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 42.857142857142854,
"bp_converted_diff": 50.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 52.29714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.4285714285714284,
"combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 60.5,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.2549348292782385,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.928571428571427,
"surface_rank_synergy": 25.947497148893127,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 41.04895104895105,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 57.3,
"surface_matches_ratio": 7.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 1.427142857142858,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 62,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 302,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2894285714285714,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.28200000000000003,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.23030303030303,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}