Sara Saito vs Mariia Tkacheva
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles | Hard | Round of 32
27 Ene 2026, 14:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sara Saito
Sara …: 54,7% Mariia …: 45,3%
¿Por qué Sara Saito?
UTR 11,33 vs 11,39 (-0,06) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sara … Mariia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
Gamdom 1,43 2,95 69,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,83 2,21 54,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sara …: -11,5% Mariia …: +11,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sara Saito
Ranking #262
UTR Rating 11,33 Pro
UTR Ranking #335
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 10% (10p)
WR Hard 3/7 = 42,9%
Mariia Tkacheva
Ranking #480
UTR Rating 11,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #311
Forma L5 0% (2p)
Forma L10 0% (2p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 218,0000
rank_ratio 1,8321
log_rank_ratio 0,6054
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 155,0000
best_rank_diff 116,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 42,8571
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 14,2303
surface_matches_ratio 7,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 41,0490
surface_wr_p2_stable 0,0000
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 52,2971
first_serve_won_diff 60,5000
second_serve_won_diff 57,3000
bp_saved_diff 56,7000
bp_converted_diff 50,0000
aces_per_match_diff 2,4286
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 2,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,4271
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 62,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 302,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,2549
serve_consistency_p2 8,9286
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 25,9475
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2894
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2820
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0600
utr_p1 0,3918
utr_p2 0,3988
utr_advantage -0,5282
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24156
API ID 15423230
Gamdom ID 628643
Torneo WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24156,
    "api_id": 15423230,
    "gamdom_id": 628643,
    "player1": "Sara Saito",
    "player2": "Mariia Tkacheva",
    "tournament": "WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-27T10:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.43,
      "p2": 2.95
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.39,
      "p2": 2.83
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5474,
    "prob_p2": 0.4526,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5474,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 262,
      "utr_singles": 11.33,
      "utr_ranking": 335,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 10.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 480,
      "utr_singles": 11.39,
      "utr_ranking": 311,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 2,
      "form_l10_matches": 2
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.33,
      "ranking": 335,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.39,
      "ranking": 311,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.39176470588235296,
    "utr_p2": 0.3988235294117648,
    "utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 1.83206106870229,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 2.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 155,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 56.7,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.5281690140845114,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 116,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6054416001408397,
    "rank_advantage": 218,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 42.857142857142854,
    "bp_converted_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 52.29714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.4285714285714284,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 60.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.2549348292782385,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.928571428571427,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 25.947497148893127,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 41.04895104895105,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 57.3,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 7.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.427142857142858,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 62,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 302,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2894285714285714,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.28200000000000003,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.23030303030303,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}