Tatjana Maria vs Leolia Jeanjean
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles | Hard | Round of 32
27 Ene 2026, 13:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leolia Jeanjean
Tatjana …: 41,5% Leolia …: 58,5%
¿Por qué Leolia Jeanjean?
UTR 11,90 vs 11,85 (+0,05) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tatjana … Leolia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,00 57,9%
Gamdom 1,88 1,97 53,2%
IA Fair Odds 2,41 1,71 41,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Tatjana …: -12,1% Leolia …: +12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tatjana Maria
Ranking #42
UTR Rating 11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #131
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 9/27 = 33,3%
Leolia Jeanjean
Ranking #103
UTR Rating 11,85 Pro
UTR Ranking #139
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 13/24 = 54,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 61,0000
rank_ratio 2,4524
log_rank_ratio 0,8971
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 472,0000
best_rank_diff 55,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -18,1667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -12,7730
surface_matches_ratio 1,0417
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 36,0000
surface_wr_p2 54,1667
surface_wr_p1_stable 37,9310
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,5714
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 24,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2800
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 0,8000
combined_confidence 0,8167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,8433
first_serve_won_diff -5,4000
second_serve_won_diff -11,2000
bp_saved_diff -9,3000
bp_converted_diff -1,4000
aces_per_match_diff 1,1083
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 22,0000
momentum_p2 2,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 9,0050
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5652
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5946
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 9,6497
serve_consistency_p2 9,3789
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -16,2966
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2010
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1027
elite_surface_amplifier -36,3333
UTR
utr_diff 0,0500
utr_p1 0,4588
utr_p2 0,4529
utr_advantage 0,4211
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24158
API ID 15423234
Gamdom ID 628646
Torneo WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24158,
    "api_id": 15423234,
    "gamdom_id": 628646,
    "player1": "Tatjana Maria",
    "player2": "Leolia Jeanjean",
    "tournament": "WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-27T09:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.7272727272727273,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.88,
      "p2": 1.97
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 1.94
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4153,
    "prob_p2": 0.5847,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5847,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 42,
      "utr_singles": 11.9,
      "utr_ranking": 131,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 103,
      "utr_singles": 11.85,
      "utr_ranking": 139,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.166666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.9,
      "ranking": 131,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.85,
      "ranking": 139,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45882352941176474,
    "utr_p2": 0.4529411764705882,
    "utr_diff": 0.05000000000000071,
    "rank_ratio": 2.4523809523809526,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 22.0,
    "momentum_p2": 2.0,
    "points_diff": 472,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -9.300000000000011,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8,
    "surface_wr_p1": 36.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 54.166666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": 0.42105263157895334,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 55,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8970593699462676,
    "rank_advantage": 61,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -18.166666666666664,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.3999999999999986,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 24,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.8433333333333337,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5652173913043478,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5945945945945946,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.1083333333333334,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.399999999999999,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.28,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.649654517713543,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.37890612158239,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -16.29657855402386,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.93103448275862,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.57142857142857,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -11.199999999999996,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0416666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 9.005000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -36.33333333333333,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.20099999999999996,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10266666666666657,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.772988505747126,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}