Yexin MA vs Darja Semenistaja
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles | Hard | Round of 32
27 Ene 2026, 13:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yexin MA
Yexin …: 56,4% Darja …: 43,7%
¿Por qué Yexin MA?
UTR 11,60 vs 11,94 (-0,34) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (38%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yexin … Darja … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,30 29,4%
Gamdom 3,35 1,35 29,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,77 2,29 56,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Yexin …: +28,7% Darja …: -28,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yexin MA
Ranking #225
UTR Rating 11,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #217
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Darja Semenistaja
Ranking #98
UTR Rating 11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking #121
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 3/9 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -127,0000
rank_ratio 0,4356
log_rank_ratio -0,8311
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -454,0000
best_rank_diff -90,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 33,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,8873
surface_matches_ratio 0,3333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 66,6667
surface_wr_p2 33,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,8095
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,4218
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,3800
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 15,5789
first_serve_won_diff 10,9000
second_serve_won_diff 10,8000
bp_saved_diff 15,9000
bp_converted_diff 4,9000
aces_per_match_diff 3,4444
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 7,9850
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 12,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7692
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,9198
serve_consistency_p2 7,8608
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -27,7044
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2937
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2937
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3400
utr_p1 0,4235
utr_p2 0,4635
utr_advantage -2,8887
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24160
API ID 15423232
Gamdom ID 628642
Torneo WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24160,
    "api_id": 15423232,
    "gamdom_id": 628642,
    "player1": "Yexin MA",
    "player2": "Darja Semenistaja",
    "tournament": "WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-27T09:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.35,
      "p2": 1.35
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.22,
      "p2": 1.32
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5635,
    "prob_p2": 0.4365,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5635,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 225,
      "utr_singles": 11.6,
      "utr_ranking": 217,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 98,
      "utr_singles": 11.94,
      "utr_ranking": 121,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.6,
      "ranking": 217,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.94,
      "ranking": 121,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4235294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.4635294117647058,
    "utr_diff": -0.33999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 0.43555555555555553,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -454,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 15.899999999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 18.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": -2.888700084961766,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -90,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.8311329235338483,
    "rank_advantage": -127,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 33.33333333333333,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.899999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": 15.57888888888889,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7692307692307693,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.4444444444444446,
    "combined_confidence": 0.38,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 10.900000000000006,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.919845839061003,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.860808555650854,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -27.704430784461604,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.421836228287845,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 10.799999999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 7.984999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 12,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2936666666666665,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.29366666666666674,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.887321280869662,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}