Kotaro Mochizuki vs Koki Matsuda
UTR Yokohama M03 | Hard |
26 Ene 2026, 08:00
26 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Koki Matsuda
Kotaro …: 18,5%
Koki …: 81,5%
¿Por qué Koki Matsuda?
UTR 12,00 vs 13,37
(-1,37)
— Ligera ventaja
Kotaro …
W51-L29
64% WR
vs UTR 11,7
L1
Koki …
W66-L24
73% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L1
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (36%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Kotaro … | Koki … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,33 | 1,20 | 23,1% |
| Gamdom | 3,75 | 1,19 | 26,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,40 | 1,23 | 18,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Kotaro …: -3,2%
Koki …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Kotaro Mochizuki
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#1867
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Koki Matsuda
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,37 Pro
UTR Ranking
#795
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
71% (7p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Kotaro Mochizuki
Record 2025
51W - 29L (64%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
11,7
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
W
W
Koki Matsuda
Record 2025
66W - 24L (73%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
12,5
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
L
W
Análisis Momentum
Koki Matsuda ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,5 vs 11,7).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,4462 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,0171 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3600 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -67,8367 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -71,1222 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -55,7333 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -53,1111 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -36,2889 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -7,7778 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 9,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 36,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,0749 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,4486 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0556 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,3700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6318 | |
| utr_advantage | -10,8002 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24226
API ID
15415502
Gamdom ID
624475
Torneo
UTR Yokohama M03
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24226,
"api_id": 15415502,
"gamdom_id": 624475,
"player1": "Kotaro Mochizuki",
"player2": "Koki Matsuda",
"tournament": "UTR Yokohama M03",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-26T04:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.333333333333334,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.75,
"p2": 1.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.19,
"p2": 1.19
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1851,
"prob_p2": 0.8149,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8149,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 1867,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 51,
"utr_v4_losses": 29,
"utr_v4_wr": 63.74999999999999,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.69,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.97,
"opponent_name": "Ryotaro Matsumura"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Taiyo Hirano"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Yamato Nishiyama"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Shotaro Kashiwagi"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Taki Adachi"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:12.399437+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.37,
"utr_ranking": 795,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 66,
"utr_v4_losses": 24,
"utr_v4_wr": 73.33333333333333,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.51,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.51,
"opponent_name": "Yusuke Kusuhara"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.08,
"opponent_name": "Ren Nakamura"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.64,
"opponent_name": "Yusuke Takahashi"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.02,
"opponent_name": "Duje AJDUKOVIC"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 14.26,
"opponent_name": "Abdullah Shelbayh"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:12.468225+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 71.42857142857143,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 7
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 1867,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.37,
"ranking": 795,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
"utr_p2": 0.6317647058823529,
"utr_diff": -1.3699999999999992,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -53.111111111111114,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.42,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -10.800157666535274,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": -55.55555555555556,
"bp_converted_diff": -36.28888888888889,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 9,
"serve_quality_diff": -67.83666666666666,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -7.777777777777778,
"combined_confidence": 0.36,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -71.12222222222222,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.0748572501687095,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.448623420227,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.01709401709402,
"second_serve_won_diff": -55.733333333333334,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0.0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 36,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05555555555555558,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.4461538461538461,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}