Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva Jovic
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
27 Ene 2026, 04:30
27 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 91,7%
Iva …: 8,3%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,41
(+0,56)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Iva … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,14 | 5,50 | 87,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,16 | 6,00 | 86,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,09 | 12,09 | 91,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +8,9%
Iva …: -8,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Iva Jovic
Ranking
#27
UTR Rating
12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#39
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
12/19 = 63,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 26,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 27,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 3,2958 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 9319,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 26,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 22,5564 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 17,7536 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,2105 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 63,1579 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,8696 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 19,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,9323 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,2476 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,5571 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,6119 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,7690 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,7707 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 9,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7778 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,5494 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,5724 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 74,3422 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3311 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1576 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 45,1128 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,4129 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24330
API ID
15345450
Gamdom ID
589759
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24330,
"api_id": 15345450,
"gamdom_id": 589759,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Iva Jovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-27T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.1400000000000001,
"p2": 5.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.16,
"p2": 6.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.15,
"p2": 5.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.9173,
"prob_p2": 0.0827,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.9173,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 27,
"utr_singles": 12.41,
"utr_ranking": 39,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.1578947368421,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 19,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.41,
"ranking": 39,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5188235294117647,
"utr_diff": 0.5600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 27.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 9319,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.611904761904761,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 9,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 63.1578947368421,
"utr_advantage": 4.412923561859736,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 26,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 3.295836866004329,
"rank_advantage": 26,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": 22.556390977443606,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.769047619047626,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 19,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.932305764411026,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7777777777777778,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.770676691729323,
"combined_confidence": 0.8166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.247619047619054,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.549387780721207,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.572440614654473,
"surface_rank_synergy": 74.34218494746607,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.86956521739131,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.557142857142857,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.210526315789474,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 45.11278195488721,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.33114285714285707,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15757894736842104,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.753623188405786,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}