Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva Jovic
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
27 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 91,7% Iva …: 8,3%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,41 (+0,56) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Iva … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,14 5,50 87,7%
Gamdom 1,16 6,00 86,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,09 12,09 91,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +8,9% Iva …: -8,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Iva Jovic
Ranking #27
UTR Rating 12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #39
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 12/19 = 63,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 26,0000
rank_ratio 27,0000
log_rank_ratio 3,2958
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 9319,0000
best_rank_diff 26,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 22,5564
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 17,7536
surface_matches_ratio 2,2105
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 63,1579
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,8696
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 19,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,6333
combined_confidence 0,8167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,9323
first_serve_won_diff 7,2476
second_serve_won_diff 2,5571
bp_saved_diff 4,6119
bp_converted_diff -1,7690
aces_per_match_diff 1,7707
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 9,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7778
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6000
serve_consistency_p1 7,5494
serve_consistency_p2 8,5724
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 74,3422
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3311
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1576
elite_surface_amplifier 45,1128
UTR
utr_diff 0,5600
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,5188
utr_advantage 4,4129
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24330
API ID 15345450
Gamdom ID 589759
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24330,
    "api_id": 15345450,
    "gamdom_id": 589759,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Iva Jovic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-27T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.1400000000000001,
      "p2": 5.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.16,
      "p2": 6.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.15,
      "p2": 5.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9173,
    "prob_p2": 0.0827,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9173,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 27,
      "utr_singles": 12.41,
      "utr_ranking": 39,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.1578947368421,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 19,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.41,
      "ranking": 39,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.5600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 27.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 9319,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.611904761904761,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 9,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.1578947368421,
    "utr_advantage": 4.412923561859736,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 26,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 3.295836866004329,
    "rank_advantage": 26,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 22.556390977443606,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.769047619047626,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 19,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.932305764411026,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7777777777777778,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.770676691729323,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.247619047619054,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.549387780721207,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.572440614654473,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 74.34218494746607,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.86956521739131,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.557142857142857,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.210526315789474,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 45.11278195488721,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.33114285714285707,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15757894736842104,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.753623188405786,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}