Sofia Costoulas vs Viktoria Morvayova
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles | Hard | Round of 32
26 Ene 2026, 13:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sofia Costoulas
Sofia …: 55,0% Viktoria …: 45,0%
¿Por qué Sofia Costoulas?
UTR 11,72 vs 11,27 (+0,45) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sofia … Viktoria … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,33 83,3%
Gamdom 1,17 5,40 85,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,82 2,22 55,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Sofia …: -23,3% Viktoria …: +23,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Costoulas
Ranking #143
UTR Rating 11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking #179
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Viktoria Morvayova
Ranking #351
UTR Rating 11,27 Pro
UTR Ranking #359
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 67% (6p)
WR Hard 3/4 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 208,0000
rank_ratio 2,4545
log_rank_ratio 0,8979
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 327,0000
best_rank_diff 200,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -50,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,3762
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 25,0000
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,1429
surface_wr_p2_stable 70,0000
p1_surface_matches 4,0000
p2_surface_matches 4,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3533
p2_confidence 0,3533
combined_confidence 0,3533
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,4650
first_serve_won_diff -5,6500
second_serve_won_diff -5,7000
bp_saved_diff -4,8000
bp_converted_diff -8,8750
aces_per_match_diff 3,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -27,9000
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 13,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,2407
serve_consistency_p2 12,6020
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -44,8971
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,4580
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,4580
elite_surface_amplifier -50,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4500
utr_p1 0,4376
utr_p2 0,3847
utr_advantage 3,9147
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24349
API ID 15427049
Gamdom ID 630169
Torneo WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24349,
    "api_id": 15427049,
    "gamdom_id": 630169,
    "player1": "Sofia Costoulas",
    "player2": "Viktoria Morvayova",
    "tournament": "WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-26T09:45:10+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.333333333333334
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.16,
      "p2": 4.92
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.55,
    "prob_p2": 0.45,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.55,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 143,
      "utr_singles": 11.72,
      "utr_ranking": 179,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 351,
      "utr_singles": 11.27,
      "utr_ranking": 359,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.72,
      "ranking": 179,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.27,
      "ranking": 359,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.3847058823529411,
    "utr_diff": 0.45000000000000107,
    "rank_ratio": 2.4545454545454546,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 327,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.799999999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": 3.914745541539809,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 200,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8979415932059586,
    "rank_advantage": 208,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -50.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.874999999999993,
    "p1_surface_matches": 4,
    "p2_surface_matches": 4,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.4650000000000034,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.649999999999999,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.240679169057306,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.601953511026805,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -44.897079660297926,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.699999999999989,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -27.900000000000013,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -50.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 13,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.45799999999999996,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.45799999999999996,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.376190476190478,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}