Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
27 Ene 2026, 13:25
27 Ene 2026, 13:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 81,2%
Alex …: 18,9%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,89
(+0,43)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,16 | 5,80 | 86,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,23 | 5,31 | 81,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Carlos …: +0,1%
Alex …: -0,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 5,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,7918 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 7970,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 5,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 15,1374 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 13,4872 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7818 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 86,0465 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,9787 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,4915 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7209 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,9795 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,6119 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,1833 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,8208 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,0182 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,4093 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,6000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4203 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8100 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5882 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,4631 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,3969 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 27,1226 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3555 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2141 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9282 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,6700 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24352
API ID
15345266
Gamdom ID
589725
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24352,
"api_id": 15345266,
"gamdom_id": 589725,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Alex de Minaur",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-27T09:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.16,
"p2": 5.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.15,
"p2": 5.43
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8115,
"prob_p2": 0.1885,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8115,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 16.32,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.89,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
"utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
"utr_diff": 0.4299999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 6.0,
"h2h_matches": 3,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 7970,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.8208456659619401,
"h2h_wins_diff": 3,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
"utr_advantage": 2.66997826761875,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 5,
"h2h_on_surface": 2,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.791759469228055,
"rank_advantage": 5,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 15.137420718816074,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.018224101479916,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 55,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.979547568710373,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.409302325581396,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.6118816067653228,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.6,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.4631382890853266,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.3968805015840653,
"surface_rank_synergy": 27.122616912627652,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.1833403805496872,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7818181818181819,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.35546511627906985,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2140909090909091,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.487197980526503,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
"h2h_wins_p1": 3,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}