Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
27 Ene 2026, 13:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 81,2% Alex …: 18,9%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,89 (+0,43) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,17 5,00 85,5%
Gamdom 1,16 5,80 86,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,23 5,31 81,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: +0,1% Alex …: -0,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 5,0000
rank_ratio 6,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,7918
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 7970,0000
best_rank_diff 5,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 15,1374
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 13,4872
surface_matches_ratio 0,7818
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 70,9091
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,4915
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,9795
first_serve_won_diff 3,6119
second_serve_won_diff 1,1833
bp_saved_diff -0,8208
bp_converted_diff 4,0182
aces_per_match_diff 1,4093
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 3,0000
h2h_matches 3,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 2,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,6000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8100
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5882
serve_consistency_p1 3,4631
serve_consistency_p2 3,3969
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 27,1226
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3555
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2141
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4300
utr_p1 0,9788
utr_p2 0,9282
utr_advantage 2,6700
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24352
API ID 15345266
Gamdom ID 589725
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24352,
    "api_id": 15345266,
    "gamdom_id": 589725,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Alex de Minaur",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-27T09:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.16,
      "p2": 5.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.15,
      "p2": 5.43
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8115,
    "prob_p2": 0.1885,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8115,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
    "utr_diff": 0.4299999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 6.0,
    "h2h_matches": 3,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 7970,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.8208456659619401,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 3,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": 2.66997826761875,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 2,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.791759469228055,
    "rank_advantage": 5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 15.137420718816074,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.018224101479916,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.979547568710373,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.409302325581396,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.6118816067653228,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.6,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.4631382890853266,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.3968805015840653,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 27.122616912627652,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.1833403805496872,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7818181818181819,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.35546511627906985,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2140909090909091,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.487197980526503,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 3,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}