Lukas Neumayer vs Jacob Fearnley
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
27 Ene 2026, 20:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Lukas …: 8,9% Jacob …: 91,1%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 14,36 vs 15,30 (-0,94) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lukas … Jacob … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,36 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 11,24 1,10 8,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Lukas …: -22,3% Jacob …: +22,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lukas Neumayer
Ranking #226
UTR Rating 14,36 Pro
UTR Ranking #213
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 10% (10p)
WR Hard 3/11 = 27,3%
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -149,0000
rank_ratio 0,3407
log_rank_ratio -1,0767
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -501,0000
best_rank_diff -108,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -28,9773
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,0741
surface_matches_ratio 0,3438
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 27,2727
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 33,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 11,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4545
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4467
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7233
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,8048
first_serve_won_diff -2,4230
second_serve_won_diff -5,5571
bp_saved_diff -2,4830
bp_converted_diff 17,5295
aces_per_match_diff -1,9631
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 2,0000
momentum_p2 8,0000
momentum_diff -6,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,7950
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 15,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8867
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6250
serve_consistency_p1 6,5881
serve_consistency_p2 5,2226
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 31,2007
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0783
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0865
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9400
utr_p1 0,7482
utr_p2 0,8588
utr_advantage -6,3385
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24380
API ID 15428907
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24380,
    "api_id": 15428907,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Lukas Neumayer",
    "player2": "Jacob Fearnley",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-27T16:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.92,
      "p2": 1.37
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.089,
    "prob_p2": 0.911,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.911,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 226,
      "utr_singles": 14.36,
      "utr_ranking": 213,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 27.27272727272727,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 10.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.36,
      "ranking": 213,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.748235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.8588235294117648,
    "utr_diff": -0.9400000000000013,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3407079646017699,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 2.0,
    "momentum_p2": 8.0,
    "points_diff": -501,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.4829545454545396,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -6.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 27.27272727272727,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
    "utr_advantage": -6.338503034389759,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -108,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.076729577418602,
    "rank_advantage": -149,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -28.97727272727273,
    "bp_converted_diff": 17.529545454545456,
    "p1_surface_matches": 11,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.804772727272734,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8866995073891626,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.9630681818181817,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.4230113636363626,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.45454545454545453,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.588126833015284,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.222597982507125,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 31.20068661837995,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.5571022727272705,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.34375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.794999999999998,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 15,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07827272727272727,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08650000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.07407407407408,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}