Lukas Neumayer vs Jacob Fearnley
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
27 Ene 2026, 20:30
27 Ene 2026, 20:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Lukas …: 8,9%
Jacob …: 91,1%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 14,36 vs 15,30
(-0,94)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lukas … | Jacob … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,36 | 33,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 11,24 | 1,10 | 8,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lukas …: -22,3%
Jacob …: +22,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lukas Neumayer
Ranking
#226
UTR Rating
14,36 Pro
UTR Ranking
#213
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
10% (10p)
WR Hard
3/11 = 27,3%
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking
#77
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -149,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3407 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0767 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -501,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -108,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -28,9773 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,0741 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,3438 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 27,2727 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,5556 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 11,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,4545 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4467 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7233 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,8048 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,4230 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,5571 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,4830 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 17,5295 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,9631 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -7,7950 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 15,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8867 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,5881 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,2226 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 31,2007 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0783 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0865 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7482 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8588 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,3385 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24380
API ID
15428907
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24380,
"api_id": 15428907,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Lukas Neumayer",
"player2": "Jacob Fearnley",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-27T16:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.92,
"p2": 1.37
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.089,
"prob_p2": 0.911,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.911,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 226,
"utr_singles": 14.36,
"utr_ranking": 213,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 27.27272727272727,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 11,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 10.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 77,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.36,
"ranking": 213,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 49,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.748235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.8588235294117648,
"utr_diff": -0.9400000000000013,
"rank_ratio": 0.3407079646017699,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 2.0,
"momentum_p2": 8.0,
"points_diff": -501,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.4829545454545396,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -6.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 27.27272727272727,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
"utr_advantage": -6.338503034389759,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -108,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.076729577418602,
"rank_advantage": -149,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -28.97727272727273,
"bp_converted_diff": 17.529545454545456,
"p1_surface_matches": 11,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.804772727272734,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8866995073891626,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.9630681818181817,
"combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.4230113636363626,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.45454545454545453,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.588126833015284,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.222597982507125,
"surface_rank_synergy": 31.20068661837995,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.5571022727272705,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.34375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -7.794999999999998,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 15,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07827272727272727,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08650000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.07407407407408,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}