Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Luca Nardi
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 15:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Luca Nardi
Rodrigo …: 24,3% Luca …: 75,8%
¿Por qué Luca Nardi?
UTR 14,08 vs 14,59 (-0,51) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Rodrigo … Luca … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,36 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 4,12 1,32 24,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Rodrigo …: -6,9% Luca …: +6,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Ranking #234
UTR Rating 14,08 Pro
UTR Ranking #339
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 5/13 = 38,5%
Luca Nardi
Ranking #108
UTR Rating 14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #145
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -126,0000
rank_ratio 0,4615
log_rank_ratio -0,7732
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -314,0000
best_rank_diff -129,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -15,1970
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,9556
surface_matches_ratio 0,3171
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 38,4615
surface_wr_p2 53,6585
surface_wr_p1_stable 41,1765
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,3333
p1_surface_matches 13,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2308
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4733
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7367
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,7903
first_serve_won_diff -1,0829
second_serve_won_diff 2,9634
bp_saved_diff -8,0829
bp_converted_diff -2,7195
aces_per_match_diff 1,2214
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,9550
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 14,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,4842
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 11,7578
serve_consistency_p2 7,0428
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 11,7502
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0106
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0894
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5100
utr_p1 0,7153
utr_p2 0,7753
utr_advantage -3,5577
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24381
API ID 15428906
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24381,
    "api_id": 15428906,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez",
    "player2": "Luca Nardi",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-28T11:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.16,
      "p2": 1.33
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2425,
    "prob_p2": 0.7575,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7575,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 234,
      "utr_singles": 14.08,
      "utr_ranking": 339,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.46153846153847,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 13,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 108,
      "utr_singles": 14.59,
      "utr_ranking": 145,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.08,
      "ranking": 339,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.59,
      "ranking": 145,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7152941176470589,
    "utr_p2": 0.7752941176470588,
    "utr_diff": -0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": -314,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -8.082926829268281,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 38.46153846153847,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.65853658536586,
    "utr_advantage": -3.557725845831879,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -129,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.7731898882334817,
    "rank_advantage": -126,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -15.196998123827392,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.7195121951219505,
    "p1_surface_matches": 13,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.7903377110694123,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.4842105263157895,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2213883677298312,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7366666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.0829268292683025,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.23076923076923078,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.757792307837795,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.042848792087808,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 11.750165280846531,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 41.17647058823529,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.963414634146339,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.3170731707317073,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.9549999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 14,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.010615384615384693,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08941463414634143,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.955555555555561,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}