Stefano Travaglia vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 12:00
28 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Shintaro Mochizuki
Stefano …: 41,2%
Shintaro …: 58,8%
¿Por qué Shintaro Mochizuki?
UTR 14,53 vs 14,58
(-0,05)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stefano … | Shintaro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,44 | 38,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,43 | 1,70 | 41,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stefano …: +5,8%
Shintaro …: -5,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefano Travaglia
Ranking
#191
UTR Rating
14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#165
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
7/12 = 58,3%
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking
#112
UTR Rating
14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking
#150
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
26/43 = 60,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -79,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5864 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5338 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -239,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 32,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,1318 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,4269 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2791 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 58,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,4651 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 59,5745 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7300 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 12,3536 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 8,4702 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 7,0748 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,8717 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,1911 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,9981 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 52,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 35,9050 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 12,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7342 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2857 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9087 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,1621 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,1379 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1623 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0257 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7682 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7741 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,3435 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24382
API ID
15428913
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24382,
"api_id": 15428913,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Stefano Travaglia",
"player2": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-28T08:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.17,
"p2": 1.63
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4121,
"prob_p2": 0.5879,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5879,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 191,
"utr_singles": 14.53,
"utr_ranking": 165,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 112,
"utr_singles": 14.58,
"utr_ranking": 150,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 165,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 150,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7741176470588236,
"utr_diff": -0.05000000000000071,
"rank_ratio": 0.5863874345549738,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": -239,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.8717054263565913,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 52.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.46,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 58.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.46511627906976,
"utr_advantage": -0.3435245620061883,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 32,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5337745567515354,
"rank_advantage": -79,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.1317829457364255,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.19108527131783148,
"p1_surface_matches": 12,
"p2_surface_matches": 43,
"serve_quality_diff": 12.353643410852698,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7341772151898734,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.9980620155038764,
"combined_confidence": 0.73,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 8.470155038759685,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.16666666666666666,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.908675626557152,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.162104884946097,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.137891496950943,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.25,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.57446808510638,
"second_serve_won_diff": 7.0748062015503805,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.27906976744186046,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 35.90500000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 12,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16233333333333333,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02565116279069768,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.426861702127659,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}