Stefano Travaglia vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Shintaro Mochizuki
Stefano …: 41,2% Shintaro …: 58,8%
¿Por qué Shintaro Mochizuki?
UTR 14,53 vs 14,58 (-0,05) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stefano … Shintaro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,44 38,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,43 1,70 41,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Stefano …: +5,8% Shintaro …: -5,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefano Travaglia
Ranking #191
UTR Rating 14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #165
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 7/12 = 58,3%
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking #112
UTR Rating 14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking #150
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 26/43 = 60,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -79,0000
rank_ratio 0,5864
log_rank_ratio -0,5338
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -239,0000
best_rank_diff 32,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -2,1318
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,4269
surface_matches_ratio 0,2791
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 58,3333
surface_wr_p2 60,4651
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,2500
surface_wr_p2_stable 59,5745
p1_surface_matches 12,0000
p2_surface_matches 43,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4600
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7300
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 12,3536
first_serve_won_diff 8,4702
second_serve_won_diff 7,0748
bp_saved_diff -2,8717
bp_converted_diff -0,1911
aces_per_match_diff 2,9981
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 35,9050
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 12,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7342
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2857
serve_consistency_p1 4,9087
serve_consistency_p2 5,1621
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,1379
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1623
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0257
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0500
utr_p1 0,7682
utr_p2 0,7741
utr_advantage -0,3435
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24382
API ID 15428913
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24382,
    "api_id": 15428913,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Stefano Travaglia",
    "player2": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-28T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.63,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.17,
      "p2": 1.63
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4121,
    "prob_p2": 0.5879,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5879,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 191,
      "utr_singles": 14.53,
      "utr_ranking": 165,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 112,
      "utr_singles": 14.58,
      "utr_ranking": 150,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.53,
      "ranking": 165,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.58,
      "ranking": 150,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.768235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.7741176470588236,
    "utr_diff": -0.05000000000000071,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5863874345549738,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": -239,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.8717054263565913,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 52.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.46,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 58.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.46511627906976,
    "utr_advantage": -0.3435245620061883,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 32,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5337745567515354,
    "rank_advantage": -79,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -2.1317829457364255,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.19108527131783148,
    "p1_surface_matches": 12,
    "p2_surface_matches": 43,
    "serve_quality_diff": 12.353643410852698,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7341772151898734,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.9980620155038764,
    "combined_confidence": 0.73,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.470155038759685,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.908675626557152,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.162104884946097,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.137891496950943,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.25,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.57446808510638,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.0748062015503805,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.27906976744186046,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 35.90500000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 12,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16233333333333333,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02565116279069768,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.426861702127659,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}