Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
28 Ene 2026, 08:30
28 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Novak Djokovic
Lorenzo …: 27,3%
Novak …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Novak Djokovic?
UTR 15,77 vs 16,05
(-0,28)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Novak … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,33 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,55 | 1,34 | 28,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,66 | 1,38 | 27,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -0,8%
Novak …: +0,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Novak Djokovic
Ranking
#4
UTR Rating
16,05 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
21/28 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2231 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -675,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -15,5405 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -12,8938 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3214 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 71,8750 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -9,3245 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,3622 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,8514 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,3514 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -9,0297 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,1940 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1065 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8456 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,5558 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,4678 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0956 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2490 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9141 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9471 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,7599 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24479
API ID
15345271
Gamdom ID
589708
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24479,
"api_id": 15345271,
"gamdom_id": 589708,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Novak Djokovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-28T04:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.33
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.55,
"p2": 1.34
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.34,
"p2": 1.32
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2731,
"prob_p2": 0.7269,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7269,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 4,
"utr_singles": 16.05,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9470588235294118,
"utr_diff": -0.28000000000000114,
"rank_ratio": 0.8,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -675,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.3513513513513473,
"h2h_wins_diff": -2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": -1.7598994343180459,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -4,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.2231435513142097,
"rank_advantage": -1,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -15.54054054054054,
"bp_converted_diff": -9.029729729729723,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": -9.324517374517384,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.106508875739645,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.1940154440154434,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.362162162162164,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.845639110565613,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.555847744681655,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.4677714055586644,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.875,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.8513513513513473,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3214285714285714,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09559459459459463,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.249,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.893800813008134,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}