Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
28 Ene 2026, 08:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Novak Djokovic
Lorenzo …: 27,3% Novak …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Novak Djokovic?
UTR 15,77 vs 16,05 (-0,28) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Novak … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,33 29,4%
Gamdom 3,55 1,34 28,2%
IA Fair Odds 3,66 1,38 27,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -0,8% Novak …: +0,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Novak Djokovic
Ranking #4
UTR Rating 16,05 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 21/28 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -1,0000
rank_ratio 0,8000
log_rank_ratio -0,2231
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -675,0000
best_rank_diff -4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -15,5405
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -12,8938
surface_matches_ratio 1,3214
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,8750
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -9,3245
first_serve_won_diff -5,3622
second_serve_won_diff -0,8514
bp_saved_diff -2,3514
bp_converted_diff -9,0297
aces_per_match_diff -3,1940
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1065
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 7,8456
serve_consistency_p2 8,5558
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,4678
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0956
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2490
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2800
utr_p1 0,9141
utr_p2 0,9471
utr_advantage -1,7599
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24479
API ID 15345271
Gamdom ID 589708
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24479,
    "api_id": 15345271,
    "gamdom_id": 589708,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Novak Djokovic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-28T04:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.55,
      "p2": 1.34
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.34,
      "p2": 1.32
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2731,
    "prob_p2": 0.7269,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7269,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 4,
      "utr_singles": 16.05,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 16.05,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9141176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.9470588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -0.28000000000000114,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -675,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.3513513513513473,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.7598994343180459,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.2231435513142097,
    "rank_advantage": -1,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -15.54054054054054,
    "bp_converted_diff": -9.029729729729723,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": -9.324517374517384,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.106508875739645,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.1940154440154434,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.362162162162164,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.845639110565613,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.555847744681655,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.4677714055586644,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.875,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.8513513513513473,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3214285714285714,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09559459459459463,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.249,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.893800813008134,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}