Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
28 Ene 2026, 04:30
28 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Elena …: 42,8%
Iga …: 57,2%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,90
(+0,08)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,91 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,78 | 2,14 | 56,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,34 | 1,75 | 42,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: -7,2%
Iga …: +7,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,9163 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2478,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -0,6643 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -0,5145 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0577 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 11,0582 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 6,0412 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0623 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,1974 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,3626 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,0094 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 4,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,2500 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,3049 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,3459 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,9460 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,6087 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2848 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2855 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5765 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,6182 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24485
API ID
15345439
Gamdom ID
589776
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24485,
"api_id": 15345439,
"gamdom_id": 589776,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-28T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9100000000000001,
"p2": 1.9100000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.78,
"p2": 2.14
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.72,
"p2": 2.11
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4282,
"prob_p2": 0.5718,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5718,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.9,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5764705882352942,
"utr_diff": 0.08000000000000007,
"rank_ratio": 0.4,
"h2h_matches": 4,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -2478,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.19737762237763,
"h2h_wins_diff": -2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": 0.6182380216383313,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -2,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.916290731874155,
"rank_advantage": -3,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.25,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -0.6643356643356526,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.36262237762238,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": 11.058185314685318,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.009440559440559,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 6.041223776223774,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.3048613431568925,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.3459147086774035,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.946049288985837,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.6087246120842181,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.06230769230769795,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0576923076923077,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.28481818181818186,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28546153846153843,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.5145278450363264,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 3
},
"feature_importance": {}
}