Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek
Australian Open | Hard | Quarterfinals
28 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Elena …: 42,8% Iga …: 57,2%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,90 (+0,08) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena … Iga … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 1,78 2,14 56,2%
IA Fair Odds 2,34 1,75 42,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena …: -7,2% Iga …: +7,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -3,0000
rank_ratio 0,4000
log_rank_ratio -0,9163
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -2478,0000
best_rank_diff -2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -0,6643
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,5145
surface_matches_ratio 1,0577
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,1818
surface_wr_p2 78,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 76,2712
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,7857
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 52,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5636
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,0582
first_serve_won_diff 6,0412
second_serve_won_diff 0,0623
bp_saved_diff 9,1974
bp_converted_diff -6,3626
aces_per_match_diff 4,0094
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -2,0000
h2h_matches 4,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,2500
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,3049
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8980
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0586
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6471
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 7,3459
serve_consistency_p2 9,9460
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,6087
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2848
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2855
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0800
utr_p1 0,5859
utr_p2 0,5765
utr_advantage 0,6182
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24485
API ID 15345439
Gamdom ID 589776
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24485,
    "api_id": 15345439,
    "gamdom_id": 589776,
    "player1": "Elena Rybakina",
    "player2": "Iga Swiatek",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-28T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.78,
      "p2": 2.14
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.72,
      "p2": 2.11
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4282,
    "prob_p2": 0.5718,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5718,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
      "wr_surface_wins": 41,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.5764705882352942,
    "utr_diff": 0.08000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 0.4,
    "h2h_matches": 4,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -2478,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.19737762237763,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
    "utr_advantage": 0.6182380216383313,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.916290731874155,
    "rank_advantage": -3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.25,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -0.6643356643356526,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.36262237762238,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 52,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.058185314685318,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.009440559440559,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.041223776223774,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.3048613431568925,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.3459147086774035,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.946049288985837,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.6087246120842181,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.06230769230769795,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0576923076923077,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.28481818181818186,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28546153846153843,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.5145278450363264,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}