Edas Butvilas vs Mert Alkaya
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Qualification Final
27 Ene 2026, 13:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Edas Butvilas
Edas …: 66,8% Mert …: 33,2%
¿Por qué Edas Butvilas?
UTR 14,40 vs 14,02 (+0,38) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Edas … Mert … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,33 3,25 75,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,50 3,01 66,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Edas …: -4,1% Mert …: +4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Edas Butvilas
Ranking #277
UTR Rating 14,40 Pro
UTR Ranking #204
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/42 = 57,1%
Mert Alkaya
Ranking #392
UTR Rating 14,02 Pro
UTR Ranking #373
Forma L5 100% (1p)
Forma L10 100% (1p)
WR Hard 1/2 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 115,0000
rank_ratio 1,4152
log_rank_ratio 0,3472
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 78,0000
best_rank_diff 191,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 7,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,3261
surface_matches_ratio 21,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,5217
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 2,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3267
combined_confidence 0,6633
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,4981
first_serve_won_diff -4,4095
second_serve_won_diff -7,0095
bp_saved_diff -0,0667
bp_converted_diff 15,4667
aces_per_match_diff -3,0952
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -23,5200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,2960
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,4803
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0436
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1150
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3800
utr_p1 0,7529
utr_p2 0,7082
utr_advantage 2,6742
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24493
API ID 15434136
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24493,
    "api_id": 15434136,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Edas Butvilas",
    "player2": "Mert Alkaya",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-27T09:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3333333333333333,
      "p2": 3.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.12
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6679,
    "prob_p2": 0.3321,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6679,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 277,
      "utr_singles": 14.4,
      "utr_ranking": 204,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 392,
      "utr_singles": 14.02,
      "utr_ranking": 373,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.4,
      "ranking": 204,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.02,
      "ranking": 373,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7529411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.708235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.3800000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4151624548736461,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 100.0,
    "points_diff": 78,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.06666666666666998,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 2.6741731175228765,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 191,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.34724433360312396,
    "rank_advantage": 115,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 7.142857142857139,
    "bp_converted_diff": 15.466666666666669,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 2,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.498095238095246,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.095238095238095,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6633333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.409523809523819,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.296030251298272,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.480316668593741,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.52173913043478,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.009523809523813,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 21.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -23.519999999999996,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.043571428571428594,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11499999999999999,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.326086956521738,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}