Edas Butvilas vs Mert Alkaya
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Qualification Final
27 Ene 2026, 13:30
27 Ene 2026, 13:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Edas Butvilas
Edas …: 66,8%
Mert …: 33,2%
¿Por qué Edas Butvilas?
UTR 14,40 vs 14,02
(+0,38)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Edas … | Mert … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,33 | 3,25 | 75,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,50 | 3,01 | 66,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Edas …: -4,1%
Mert …: +4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Edas Butvilas
Ranking
#277
UTR Rating
14,40 Pro
UTR Ranking
#204
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
24/42 = 57,1%
Mert Alkaya
Ranking
#392
UTR Rating
14,02 Pro
UTR Ranking
#373
Forma L5
100% (1p)
Forma L10
100% (1p)
WR Hard
1/2 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 115,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4152 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3472 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 78,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 191,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 7,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,3261 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 21,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 56,5217 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 2,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3267 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6633 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -10,4981 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,4095 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,0095 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,0667 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 15,4667 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,0952 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -23,5200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6250 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,2960 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,4803 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0436 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1150 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7529 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7082 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,6742 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24493
API ID
15434136
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24493,
"api_id": 15434136,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Edas Butvilas",
"player2": "Mert Alkaya",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Final",
"date": "2026-01-27T09:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3333333333333333,
"p2": 3.25
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.32,
"p2": 3.12
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6679,
"prob_p2": 0.3321,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6679,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 277,
"utr_singles": 14.4,
"utr_ranking": 204,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 392,
"utr_singles": 14.02,
"utr_ranking": 373,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 2,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 1,
"form_l10_matches": 1
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.4,
"ranking": 204,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.02,
"ranking": 373,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.708235294117647,
"utr_diff": 0.3800000000000008,
"rank_ratio": 1.4151624548736461,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 100.0,
"points_diff": 78,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.06666666666666998,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -32.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 2.6741731175228765,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 191,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.34724433360312396,
"rank_advantage": 115,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 7.142857142857139,
"bp_converted_diff": 15.466666666666669,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 2,
"serve_quality_diff": -10.498095238095246,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.095238095238095,
"combined_confidence": 0.6633333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.409523809523819,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.296030251298272,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.480316668593741,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.52173913043478,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.009523809523813,
"surface_matches_ratio": 21.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -23.519999999999996,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.043571428571428594,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11499999999999999,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.326086956521738,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}