Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina
Australian Open | Hard | Semifinals
29 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 82,1% Elina …: 17,9%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,66 (+0,31) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Elina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,28 3,75 78,1%
Gamdom 1,24 4,40 80,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,22 5,58 82,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +7,5% Elina …: -7,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Elina Svitolina
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 17/27 = 63,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 11,0000
rank_ratio 12,0000
log_rank_ratio 2,4849
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 8134,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 22,7513
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 20,2525
surface_matches_ratio 1,5556
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 62,9630
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,2903
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,9500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,5814
first_serve_won_diff -1,5265
second_serve_won_diff 7,0571
bp_saved_diff 11,2008
bp_converted_diff 2,9050
aces_per_match_diff 0,1138
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9645
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1667
serve_consistency_p1 8,6827
serve_consistency_p2 5,4277
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 56,5349
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3461
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1406
elite_surface_amplifier 22,7513
UTR
utr_diff 0,3100
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,5482
utr_advantage 2,4190
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24509
API ID 15345441
Gamdom ID 589777
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24509,
    "api_id": 15345441,
    "gamdom_id": 589777,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Elina Svitolina",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-29T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.24,
      "p2": 4.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.23,
      "p2": 4.22
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8207,
    "prob_p2": 0.1793,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8207,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 12.66,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.66,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.548235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.3100000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 12.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 8134,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 11.20079365079365,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.96296296296296,
    "utr_advantage": 2.419040187280534,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.4849066497880004,
    "rank_advantage": 11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 22.751322751322746,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.9050264550264515,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.5814285714285603,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9645390070921985,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.1137566137566135,
    "combined_confidence": 0.95,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.5264550264550252,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.682740783932061,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.4276670437322645,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 56.53491319623492,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.29032258064516,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.05714285714285,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5555555555555556,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 22.751322751322746,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3461428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14062962962962966,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.252454417952308,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}