Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina
Australian Open | Hard | Semifinals
29 Ene 2026, 12:30
29 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 82,1%
Elina …: 17,9%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,66
(+0,31)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Elina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,28 | 3,75 | 78,1% |
| Gamdom | 1,24 | 4,40 | 80,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,22 | 5,58 | 82,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +7,5%
Elina …: -7,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Elina Svitolina
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
17/27 = 63,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 11,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 12,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,4849 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 8134,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 22,7513 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 20,2525 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5556 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,9630 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,2903 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,5814 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,5265 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 7,0571 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 11,2008 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,9050 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,1138 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9645 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,1667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,6827 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,4277 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 56,5349 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3461 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1406 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 22,7513 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5482 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,4190 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24509
API ID
15345441
Gamdom ID
589777
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24509,
"api_id": 15345441,
"gamdom_id": 589777,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Elina Svitolina",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-29T08:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.24,
"p2": 4.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.23,
"p2": 4.22
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8207,
"prob_p2": 0.1793,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8207,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 12.66,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.66,
"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.548235294117647,
"utr_diff": 0.3100000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 12.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 8134,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 11.20079365079365,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.96296296296296,
"utr_advantage": 2.419040187280534,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.4849066497880004,
"rank_advantage": 11,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 22.751322751322746,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.9050264550264515,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.5814285714285603,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9645390070921985,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.1137566137566135,
"combined_confidence": 0.95,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.5264550264550252,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.682740783932061,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.4276670437322645,
"surface_rank_synergy": 56.53491319623492,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.29032258064516,
"second_serve_won_diff": 7.05714285714285,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5555555555555556,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 22.751322751322746,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3461428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14062962962962966,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.252454417952308,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}