Vadym Ursu vs Joel Schwaerzler
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Joel Schwaerzler
Vadym …: 45,0% Joel …: 55,0%
¿Por qué Joel Schwaerzler?
UTR 13,54 vs 14,16 (-0,62) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (39%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Vadym … Joel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,36 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,22 1,82 45,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Vadym …: +13,8% Joel …: -13,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Vadym Ursu
Ranking #430
UTR Rating 13,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #668
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 33% (6p)
WR Hard 5/12 = 41,7%
Joel Schwaerzler
Ranking #245
UTR Rating 14,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #300
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -185,0000
rank_ratio 0,5698
log_rank_ratio -0,5625
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -116,0000
best_rank_diff -64,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 41,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,9000
surface_matches_ratio 12,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,6667
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,2500
p1_surface_matches 12,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4600
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,3867
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2667
first_serve_won_diff -3,5667
second_serve_won_diff -6,5000
bp_saved_diff 15,0667
bp_converted_diff 33,9667
aces_per_match_diff 2,5000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 48,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 33,5700
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 101,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 11,5975
serve_consistency_p2 3,5908
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -23,4386
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1017
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,6850
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6200
utr_p1 0,6518
utr_p2 0,7247
utr_advantage -4,4765
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24510
API ID 15438383
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24510,
    "api_id": 15438383,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Vadym Ursu",
    "player2": "Joel Schwaerzler",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-28T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.79,
      "p2": 1.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.45,
    "prob_p2": 0.55,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.55,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 430,
      "utr_singles": 13.54,
      "utr_ranking": 668,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 245,
      "utr_singles": 14.16,
      "utr_ranking": 300,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.54,
      "ranking": 668,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.16,
      "ranking": 300,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6517647058823528,
    "utr_p2": 0.7247058823529412,
    "utr_diff": -0.620000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5697674418604651,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -116,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 15.066666666666663,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 48.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.46,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -4.4765342960288885,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -64,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5625269981428811,
    "rank_advantage": -185,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 41.66666666666667,
    "bp_converted_diff": 33.96666666666667,
    "p1_surface_matches": 12,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.2666666666666657,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.5,
    "combined_confidence": 0.38666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.56666666666667,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.597531259282386,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.5908241878744533,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -23.438624922620047,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.25,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 12.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 33.57000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 101,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1016666666666668,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.685,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.9,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}