Yanki Erel vs Mattia Bellucci
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mattia Bellucci
Yanki …: 11,6% Mattia …: 88,4%
¿Por qué Mattia Bellucci?
UTR 14,05 vs 14,75 (-0,70) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yanki … Mattia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,33 1,20 23,1%
IA Fair Odds 8,62 1,13 11,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Yanki …: -10,1% Mattia …: +10,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yanki Erel
Ranking #451
UTR Rating 14,05 Pro
UTR Ranking #361
Forma L5 100% (2p)
Forma L10 100% (2p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Mattia Bellucci
Ranking #76
UTR Rating 14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 12/29 = 41,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -375,0000
rank_ratio 0,1685
log_rank_ratio -1,7807
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -657,0000
best_rank_diff -262,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -41,3793
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,7980
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 41,3793
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,4242
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,6333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -62,3903
first_serve_won_diff -68,8724
second_serve_won_diff -55,4793
bp_saved_diff -69,2690
bp_converted_diff -31,3862
aces_per_match_diff -5,6552
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,8000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 80,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 55,0200
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5059
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 4,9214
serve_consistency_p2 7,9014
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 73,6855
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1250
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4612
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7000
utr_p1 0,7118
utr_p2 0,7941
utr_advantage -4,8611
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24511
API ID 15438382
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24511,
    "api_id": 15438382,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Yanki Erel",
    "player2": "Mattia Bellucci",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-28T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.333333333333334,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.63,
      "p2": 1.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.116,
    "prob_p2": 0.884,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.884,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 451,
      "utr_singles": 14.05,
      "utr_ranking": 361,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 2,
      "form_l10_matches": 2
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 76,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.37931034482759,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.05,
      "ranking": 361,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.75,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7117647058823531,
    "utr_p2": 0.7941176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.6999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.16851441241685144,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 100.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -657,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -69.26896551724138,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.8,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 80.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 41.37931034482759,
    "utr_advantage": -4.861111111111106,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -262,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.7807339992163473,
    "rank_advantage": -375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -41.37931034482759,
    "bp_converted_diff": -31.386206896551727,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -62.390344827586205,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5058823529411764,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -5.655172413793103,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -68.87241379310345,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.92142266335815,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.901422188678748,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 73.6855447951592,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.42424242424242,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -55.47931034482759,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 55.019999999999996,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.125,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.46120689655172414,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.797979797979799,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}