Lukas Pokorny vs Guy Den Ouden
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 15:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Guy Den Ouden
Lukas …: 45,0% Guy …: 55,0%
¿Por qué Guy Den Ouden?
UTR 13,75 vs 14,52 (-0,77) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lukas … Guy … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,36 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,22 1,82 45,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Lukas …: +13,8% Guy …: -13,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lukas Pokorny
Ranking #473
UTR Rating 13,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #529
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Hard 11/17 = 64,7%
Guy Den Ouden
Ranking #160
UTR Rating 14,52 Pro
UTR Ranking #168
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 17% (6p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -313,0000
rank_ratio 0,3383
log_rank_ratio -1,0839
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -280,0000
best_rank_diff -236,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 64,7059
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,2419
surface_matches_ratio 17,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,7059
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,9048
surface_wr_p2_stable 67,0000
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2941
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,4400
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 21,6053
first_serve_won_diff 16,9176
second_serve_won_diff -2,4529
bp_saved_diff 43,5294
bp_converted_diff -4,0412
aces_per_match_diff 6,9412
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,3000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 71,4286
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 51,4286
weighted_momentum_diff 36,2674
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 16,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,6533
serve_consistency_p2 11,3793
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -70,1361
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,4601
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,8130
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7700
utr_p1 0,6765
utr_p2 0,7671
utr_advantage -5,4475
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24514
API ID 15438384
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24514,
    "api_id": 15438384,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Lukas Pokorny",
    "player2": "Guy Den Ouden",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-28T11:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.23,
      "p2": 1.6
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.45,
    "prob_p2": 0.55,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.55,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 473,
      "utr_singles": 13.75,
      "utr_ranking": 529,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 160,
      "utr_singles": 14.52,
      "utr_ranking": 168,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 16.666666666666664,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.75,
      "ranking": 529,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.52,
      "ranking": 168,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6764705882352942,
    "utr_p2": 0.7670588235294117,
    "utr_diff": -0.7699999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3382663847780127,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 71.42857142857143,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -280,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 43.529411764705884,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.3,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 51.42857142857143,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.70588235294117,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -5.44747081712062,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -236,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.083921573258106,
    "rank_advantage": -313,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 64.70588235294117,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.041176470588237,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": 21.605294117647063,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 6.9411764705882355,
    "combined_confidence": 0.43999999999999995,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 16.91764705882352,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.29411764705882354,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.6532680037158,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.379338688373029,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -70.13610179905392,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.904761904761905,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.4529411764705813,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 17.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 36.26742857142857,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 16,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.46005882352941163,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.813,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.2419047619047614,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}