Lukas Pokorny vs Guy Den Ouden
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 32
28 Ene 2026, 15:15
28 Ene 2026, 15:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Guy Den Ouden
Lukas …: 45,0%
Guy …: 55,0%
¿Por qué Guy Den Ouden?
UTR 13,75 vs 14,52
(-0,77)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lukas … | Guy … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,36 | 33,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,22 | 1,82 | 45,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lukas …: +13,8%
Guy …: -13,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lukas Pokorny
Ranking
#473
UTR Rating
13,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#529
Forma L5
50% (4p)
Forma L10
50% (4p)
WR Hard
11/17 = 64,7%
Guy Den Ouden
Ranking
#160
UTR Rating
14,52 Pro
UTR Ranking
#168
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
17% (6p)
WR Hard
0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -313,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3383 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0839 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -280,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -236,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 64,7059 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,2419 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 17,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,7059 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,9048 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 67,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 1,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2941 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3133 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4400 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 21,6053 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 16,9176 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,4529 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 43,5294 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,0412 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 6,9412 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,3000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 71,4286 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 51,4286 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 36,2674 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 16,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,6533 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,3793 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -70,1361 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,4601 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,8130 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6765 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7671 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,4475 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24514
API ID
15438384
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24514,
"api_id": 15438384,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Lukas Pokorny",
"player2": "Guy Den Ouden",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-28T11:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.23,
"p2": 1.6
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.45,
"prob_p2": 0.55,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.55,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 473,
"utr_singles": 13.75,
"utr_ranking": 529,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 160,
"utr_singles": 14.52,
"utr_ranking": 168,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 1,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 16.666666666666664,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.75,
"ranking": 529,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.52,
"ranking": 168,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6764705882352942,
"utr_p2": 0.7670588235294117,
"utr_diff": -0.7699999999999996,
"rank_ratio": 0.3382663847780127,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 71.42857142857143,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": -280,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 43.529411764705884,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.3,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 51.42857142857143,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.70588235294117,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -5.44747081712062,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -236,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.083921573258106,
"rank_advantage": -313,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 64.70588235294117,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.041176470588237,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 1,
"serve_quality_diff": 21.605294117647063,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 6.9411764705882355,
"combined_confidence": 0.43999999999999995,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 16.91764705882352,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.29411764705882354,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.6532680037158,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.379338688373029,
"surface_rank_synergy": -70.13610179905392,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.904761904761905,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.4529411764705813,
"surface_matches_ratio": 17.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 36.26742857142857,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 16,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.46005882352941163,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.813,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.2419047619047614,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}