Sofia Costoulas vs Yexin MA
WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles | Hard | Round of 16
28 Ene 2026, 07:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yexin MA
Sofia …: 27,3% Yexin …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Yexin MA?
UTR 11,72 vs 11,60 (+0,12) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sofia … Yexin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
Gamdom 1,47 2,80 68,0%
IA Fair Odds 3,66 1,38 27,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Sofia …: -38,9% Yexin …: +38,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Costoulas
Ranking #143
UTR Rating 11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking #179
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Yexin MA
Ranking #225
UTR Rating 11,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #217
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 82,0000
rank_ratio 1,5734
log_rank_ratio 0,4533
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 181,0000
best_rank_diff 34,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -41,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,9778
surface_matches_ratio 1,3333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 25,0000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,1429
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8095
p1_surface_matches 4,0000
p2_surface_matches 3,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3533
p2_confidence 0,3400
combined_confidence 0,3467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,5450
first_serve_won_diff -10,0500
second_serve_won_diff -8,4000
bp_saved_diff 4,3000
bp_converted_diff -14,4750
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -14,5460
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,4191
serve_consistency_p2 7,3507
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -18,8857
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3320
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2487
elite_surface_amplifier -41,6667
UTR
utr_diff 0,1200
utr_p1 0,4376
utr_p2 0,4235
utr_advantage 1,0292
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24515
API ID 15409289
Gamdom ID 621520
Torneo WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24515,
    "api_id": 15409289,
    "gamdom_id": 621520,
    "player1": "Sofia Costoulas",
    "player2": "Yexin MA",
    "tournament": "WTA 125K Manila, Philippines Women Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-28T03:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.68
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2732,
    "prob_p2": 0.7268,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7268,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 143,
      "utr_singles": 11.72,
      "utr_ranking": 179,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 225,
      "utr_singles": 11.6,
      "utr_ranking": 217,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.72,
      "ranking": 179,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.6,
      "ranking": 217,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.4235294117647058,
    "utr_diff": 0.120000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5734265734265733,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": 181,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.300000000000004,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -12.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": 1.029159519725566,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 34,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.4532557719445128,
    "rank_advantage": 82,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -41.66666666666666,
    "bp_converted_diff": -14.474999999999994,
    "p1_surface_matches": 4,
    "p2_surface_matches": 3,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.545000000000002,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -10.050000000000004,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.41905497930336,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.350697649862773,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -18.885657164354694,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.399999999999991,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3333333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -14.546000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -41.66666666666666,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.3320000000000001,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2486666666666666,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.977777777777774,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}