Lorenzo Giustino vs Otto Virtanen
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 16
29 Ene 2026, 20:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Otto Virtanen
Lorenzo …: 26,7% Otto …: 73,3%
¿Por qué Otto Virtanen?
UTR 14,45 vs 14,87 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Otto … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,44 38,0%
IA Fair Odds 3,74 1,37 26,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -8,6% Otto …: +8,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Giustino
Ranking #211
UTR Rating 14,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #184
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (8p)
WR Hard 2/6 = 33,3%
Otto Virtanen
Ranking #126
UTR Rating 14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking #100
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/30 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -85,0000
rank_ratio 0,5972
log_rank_ratio -0,5156
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -209,0000
best_rank_diff -36,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -9,1694
surface_matches_ratio 0,2000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 53,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 39,6522
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,9412
p1_surface_matches 6,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3800
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6900
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -15,2693
first_serve_won_diff -3,8800
second_serve_won_diff -3,3200
bp_saved_diff -3,1000
bp_converted_diff -10,1000
aces_per_match_diff -6,1667
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 48,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 4,1000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5962
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 3,7837
serve_consistency_p2 9,4183
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 10,3115
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0817
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0517
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,7588
utr_p2 0,8082
utr_advantage -2,8649
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24525
API ID 15403379
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24525,
    "api_id": 15403379,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Giustino",
    "player2": "Otto Virtanen",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-29T16:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.63,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.82,
      "p2": 1.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2674,
    "prob_p2": 0.7326,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7326,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 211,
      "utr_singles": 14.45,
      "utr_ranking": 184,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 6,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 126,
      "utr_singles": 14.87,
      "utr_ranking": 100,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.45,
      "ranking": 184,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.87,
      "ranking": 100,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7588235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5971563981042654,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -209,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.0999999999999943,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -1.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.38,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": -2.86493860845839,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -36,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5155762265245886,
    "rank_advantage": -85,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.000000000000007,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.100000000000001,
    "p1_surface_matches": 6,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": -15.269333333333314,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5961538461538461,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.166666666666666,
    "combined_confidence": 0.69,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.8799999999999812,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.783722204114209,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.41825239900298,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 10.311524530491775,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 39.65217391304348,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.319999999999986,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.2,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 4.1000000000000085,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.08166666666666678,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05166666666666664,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.169411764705885,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}