Lorenzo Giustino vs Otto Virtanen
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 16
29 Ene 2026, 20:05
29 Ene 2026, 20:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Otto Virtanen
Lorenzo …: 26,7%
Otto …: 73,3%
¿Por qué Otto Virtanen?
UTR 14,45 vs 14,87
(-0,42)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Otto … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,44 | 38,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,74 | 1,37 | 26,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -8,6%
Otto …: +8,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Giustino
Ranking
#211
UTR Rating
14,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#184
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (8p)
WR Hard
2/6 = 33,3%
Otto Virtanen
Ranking
#126
UTR Rating
14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking
#100
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
16/30 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -85,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5972 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5156 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -209,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -36,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -9,1694 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 39,6522 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,9412 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6900 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -15,2693 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,8800 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,3200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,1000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,1000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,1667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 4,1000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5962 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,7837 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,4183 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 10,3115 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0817 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0517 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7588 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8082 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,8649 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24525
API ID
15403379
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24525,
"api_id": 15403379,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Lorenzo Giustino",
"player2": "Otto Virtanen",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-29T16:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.82,
"p2": 1.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2674,
"prob_p2": 0.7326,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7326,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 211,
"utr_singles": 14.45,
"utr_ranking": 184,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 6,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 126,
"utr_singles": 14.87,
"utr_ranking": 100,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.45,
"ranking": 184,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.87,
"ranking": 100,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7588235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
"utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.5971563981042654,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -209,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.0999999999999943,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -1.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.38,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": -2.86493860845839,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -36,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5155762265245886,
"rank_advantage": -85,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.000000000000007,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.100000000000001,
"p1_surface_matches": 6,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": -15.269333333333314,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5961538461538461,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.166666666666666,
"combined_confidence": 0.69,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.8799999999999812,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.783722204114209,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.41825239900298,
"surface_rank_synergy": 10.311524530491775,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 39.65217391304348,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.319999999999986,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.2,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 4.1000000000000085,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.08166666666666678,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05166666666666664,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.169411764705885,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}