Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Australian Open | Hard | Semifinals
30 Ene 2026, 07:30
30 Ene 2026, 07:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 78,2%
Alexander …: 21,8%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,74
(+0,58)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Alexander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,17 | 5,00 | 85,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,18 | 5,40 | 84,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,28 | 4,58 | 78,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Carlos …: -2,9%
Alexander …: +2,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Alexander Zverev
Ranking
#3
UTR Rating
15,74 Pro
UTR Ranking
#10
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
32/45 = 71,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,0986 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 6945,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 14,9354 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 13,5910 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9556 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 4,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 86,0465 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 71,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,9787 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,3878 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 45,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7209 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,2470 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,2428 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,7270 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,3839 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,7952 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,1463 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4203 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,5708 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,9538 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 16,4082 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3585 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2131 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9106 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,6182 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24535
API ID
15345296
Gamdom ID
589693
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
live
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24535,
"api_id": 15345296,
"gamdom_id": 589693,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Alexander Zverev",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-30T03:30:00+00:00",
"status": "live"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.17,
"p2": 5.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.18,
"p2": 5.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 15.84
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7816,
"prob_p2": 0.2184,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7816,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 3,
"utr_singles": 15.74,
"utr_ranking": 10,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.11111111111111,
"wr_surface_wins": 32,
"wr_surface_total": 45,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 16.32,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.74,
"ranking": 10,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
"utr_p2": 0.9105882352941177,
"utr_diff": 0.5800000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 3.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 6945,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.3838759689922568,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
"surface_wr_p2": 71.11111111111111,
"utr_advantage": 3.6182158452900812,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 1,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.0986122886681098,
"rank_advantage": 2,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 14.935400516795866,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.795193798449617,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 45,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.2469819121447188,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0182481751824817,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.1462532299741595,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.2427906976744225,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.5708320979121817,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.953763800484264,
"surface_rank_synergy": 16.408214543931976,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.38775510204081,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.726976744186054,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9555555555555556,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.35846511627906985,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21311111111111114,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.590968302214506,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}