Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Australian Open | Hard | Semifinals
30 Ene 2026, 07:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 78,2% Alexander …: 21,8%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 15,74 (+0,58) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Alexander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,17 5,00 85,5%
Gamdom 1,18 5,40 84,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,58 78,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: -2,9% Alexander …: +2,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Alexander Zverev
Ranking #3
UTR Rating 15,74 Pro
UTR Ranking #10
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 32/45 = 71,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 2,0000
rank_ratio 3,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,0986
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 6945,0000
best_rank_diff 1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 14,9354
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 13,5910
surface_matches_ratio 0,9556
surface_tournaments_won_diff 4,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 71,1111
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,3878
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 45,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2470
first_serve_won_diff 4,2428
second_serve_won_diff 4,7270
bp_saved_diff -1,3839
bp_converted_diff 7,7952
aces_per_match_diff -1,1463
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0182
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 3,5708
serve_consistency_p2 3,9538
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 16,4082
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3585
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2131
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,5800
utr_p1 0,9788
utr_p2 0,9106
utr_advantage 3,6182
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24535
API ID 15345296
Gamdom ID 589693
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status live
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24535,
    "api_id": 15345296,
    "gamdom_id": 589693,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Alexander Zverev",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-30T03:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "live"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 5.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 15.84
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7816,
    "prob_p2": 0.2184,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7816,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 3,
      "utr_singles": 15.74,
      "utr_ranking": 10,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.11111111111111,
      "wr_surface_wins": 32,
      "wr_surface_total": 45,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.74,
      "ranking": 10,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.9105882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.5800000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 3.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 6945,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.3838759689922568,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 71.11111111111111,
    "utr_advantage": 3.6182158452900812,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.0986122886681098,
    "rank_advantage": 2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 14.935400516795866,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.795193798449617,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 45,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.2469819121447188,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0182481751824817,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.1462532299741595,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.2427906976744225,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.5708320979121817,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.953763800484264,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 16.408214543931976,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.38775510204081,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.726976744186054,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9555555555555556,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.35846511627906985,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21311111111111114,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.590968302214506,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}