Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina
Australian Open | Hard | Semifinals
29 Ene 2026, 14:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Jessica …: 30,4% Elena …: 69,6%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,98 (-0,23) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jessica … Elena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,44 36,4%
Gamdom 2,90 1,46 34,5%
IA Fair Odds 3,29 1,44 30,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Jessica …: -4,0% Elena …: +4,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -1,0000
rank_ratio 0,8333
log_rank_ratio -0,1823
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -397,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,7941
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,3467
surface_matches_ratio 0,8909
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,3878
surface_wr_p2 78,1818
surface_wr_p1_stable 67,9245
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,2712
p1_surface_matches 49,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3878
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,5125
first_serve_won_diff -7,6712
second_serve_won_diff -1,0343
bp_saved_diff -6,0169
bp_converted_diff 1,3288
aces_per_match_diff -4,1833
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2132
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8980
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3571
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6471
serve_consistency_p1 7,0161
serve_consistency_p2 6,9745
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,6033
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1949
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2808
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2300
utr_p1 0,5588
utr_p2 0,5859
utr_advantage -1,7878
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24538
API ID 15345475
Gamdom ID 589758
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24538,
    "api_id": 15345475,
    "gamdom_id": 589758,
    "player1": "Jessica Pegula",
    "player2": "Elena Rybakina",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-29T10:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.9,
      "p2": 1.46
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.87,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3041,
    "prob_p2": 0.6959,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6959,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5588235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5858823529411765,
    "utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -397,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.016883116883115,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.18181818181819,
    "utr_advantage": -1.7877963466770341,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.1823215567939546,
    "rank_advantage": -1,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.794063079777374,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.3288311688311794,
    "p1_surface_matches": 49,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.512474953617811,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8979591836734694,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -4.18330241187384,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.671168831168828,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.01606132345316,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.974522940295235,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.6033472712492496,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.0342857142857156,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8909090909090909,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19487755102040816,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28081818181818186,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.34665813879117,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}