Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina
Australian Open | Hard | Semifinals
29 Ene 2026, 14:10
29 Ene 2026, 14:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Jessica …: 30,4%
Elena …: 69,6%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,98
(-0,23)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jessica … | Elena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,44 | 36,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,90 | 1,46 | 34,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,29 | 1,44 | 30,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jessica …: -4,0%
Elena …: +4,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
34/49 = 69,4%
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1823 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -397,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -8,7941 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,3467 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8909 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 67,9245 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,2712 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 49,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3878 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,5125 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,6712 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,0343 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,0169 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,3288 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -4,1833 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2132 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8980 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3571 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6471 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,0161 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9745 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,6033 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1949 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2808 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5588 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,7878 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24538
API ID
15345475
Gamdom ID
589758
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24538,
"api_id": 15345475,
"gamdom_id": 589758,
"player1": "Jessica Pegula",
"player2": "Elena Rybakina",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-29T10:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.9,
"p2": 1.46
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.87,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3041,
"prob_p2": 0.6959,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6959,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 12.75,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 49,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.75,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5588235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.5858823529411765,
"utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
"rank_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -397,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.016883116883115,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.18181818181819,
"utr_advantage": -1.7877963466770341,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.1823215567939546,
"rank_advantage": -1,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -8.794063079777374,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.3288311688311794,
"p1_surface_matches": 49,
"p2_surface_matches": 55,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.512474953617811,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8979591836734694,
"aces_per_match_diff": -4.18330241187384,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.671168831168828,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.01606132345316,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.974522940295235,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.6033472712492496,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.0342857142857156,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8909090909090909,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19487755102040816,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28081818181818186,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.34665813879117,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}