Edas Butvilas vs Mattia Bellucci
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 16
29 Ene 2026, 14:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mattia Bellucci
Edas …: 45,5% Mattia …: 54,5%
¿Por qué Mattia Bellucci?
UTR 14,40 vs 14,75 (-0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Edas … Mattia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,25 1,57 44,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,20 1,83 45,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Edas …: +4,4% Mattia …: -4,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Edas Butvilas
Ranking #277
UTR Rating 14,40 Pro
UTR Ranking #204
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 24/42 = 57,1%
Mattia Bellucci
Ranking #76
UTR Rating 14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 12/29 = 41,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -201,0000
rank_ratio 0,2744
log_rank_ratio -1,2933
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -559,0000
best_rank_diff -138,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 15,7635
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 13,8625
surface_matches_ratio 1,4483
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 41,3793
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,5217
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,4242
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,8984
first_serve_won_diff 1,0181
second_serve_won_diff 0,3112
bp_saved_diff -6,8356
bp_converted_diff 12,6805
aces_per_match_diff -1,2504
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff 44,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 29,7810
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5059
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 6,3203
serve_consistency_p2 7,5983
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -20,3867
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2724
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2872
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3500
utr_p1 0,7529
utr_p2 0,7941
utr_advantage -2,4014
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24543
API ID 15403391
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24543,
    "api_id": 15403391,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Edas Butvilas",
    "player2": "Mattia Bellucci",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-29T10:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.43,
      "p2": 1.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4549,
    "prob_p2": 0.5451,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5451,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 277,
      "utr_singles": 14.4,
      "utr_ranking": 204,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 76,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.37931034482759,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.4,
      "ranking": 204,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.75,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7529411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.7941176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.34999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2743682310469314,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -559,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.835632183908054,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 43.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 41.37931034482759,
    "utr_advantage": -2.4013722126929653,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -138,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2932841659010075,
    "rank_advantage": -201,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 15.763546798029552,
    "bp_converted_diff": 12.680459770114943,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.8984400656814557,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5058823529411764,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.250410509031198,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.0180623973727307,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.320259217925887,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.598326709282576,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -20.386745472331146,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.52173913043478,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.42424242424242,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.3111658456485955,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4482758620689655,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 29.781000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.27242857142857135,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.2872068965517241,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.86253842775582,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}