Lukas Pokorny vs Jacob Fearnley
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 16
29 Ene 2026, 12:00
29 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Lukas …: 23,0%
Jacob …: 77,0%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 13,75 vs 15,30
(-1,55)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lukas … | Jacob … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,50 | 1,18 | 22,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,35 | 1,30 | 23,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lukas …: +2,2%
Jacob …: -2,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lukas Pokorny
Ranking
#473
UTR Rating
13,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#529
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (5p)
WR Hard
11/17 = 64,7%
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking
#77
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -396,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1628 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,8153 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -660,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -334,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 8,4559 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,9735 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5313 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,7059 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,9048 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,5556 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2941 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,3578 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,8583 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -9,6373 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,5081 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -12,9662 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,1599 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 48,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 35,0290 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8867 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8671 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,2413 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -15,3499 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,5431 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,3335 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,5500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6765 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8588 | |
| utr_advantage | -10,6713 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24551
API ID
15403380
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24551,
"api_id": 15403380,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Lukas Pokorny",
"player2": "Jacob Fearnley",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-29T08:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.5,
"p2": 1.18
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.88,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2301,
"prob_p2": 0.7699,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7699,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 473,
"utr_singles": 13.75,
"utr_ranking": 529,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 77,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.75,
"ranking": 529,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 49,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8588235294117648,
"utr_diff": -1.5500000000000007,
"rank_ratio": 0.16279069767441862,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
"points_diff": -660,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.50808823529411,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 47.99999999999998,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.70588235294117,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
"utr_advantage": -10.671256454388988,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -334,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.8152899666382492,
"rank_advantage": -396,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 8.455882352941174,
"bp_converted_diff": -12.966176470588234,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.35779411764706,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8866995073891626,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.1599264705882355,
"combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.858272058823516,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.29411764705882354,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.867090235221784,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.241332851917006,
"surface_rank_synergy": -15.349878394367543,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.904761904761905,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"second_serve_won_diff": -9.637316176470584,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.53125,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 35.028999999999996,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.5430588235294117,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.3335,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.973544973544972,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}