Lukas Pokorny vs Jacob Fearnley
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Round of 16
29 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Lukas …: 23,0% Jacob …: 77,0%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 13,75 vs 15,30 (-1,55) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lukas … Jacob … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,18 22,2%
IA Fair Odds 4,35 1,30 23,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Lukas …: +2,2% Jacob …: -2,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lukas Pokorny
Ranking #473
UTR Rating 13,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #529
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (5p)
WR Hard 11/17 = 64,7%
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -396,0000
rank_ratio 0,1628
log_rank_ratio -1,8153
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -660,0000
best_rank_diff -334,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,4559
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,9735
surface_matches_ratio 0,5313
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,7059
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,9048
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2941
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,3578
first_serve_won_diff 3,8583
second_serve_won_diff -9,6373
bp_saved_diff -5,5081
bp_converted_diff -12,9662
aces_per_match_diff 3,1599
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 90,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff 48,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 35,0290
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8867
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6250
serve_consistency_p1 8,8671
serve_consistency_p2 3,2413
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -15,3499
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,5431
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3335
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,5500
utr_p1 0,6765
utr_p2 0,8588
utr_advantage -10,6713
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24551
API ID 15403380
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24551,
    "api_id": 15403380,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Lukas Pokorny",
    "player2": "Jacob Fearnley",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-29T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.18
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.88,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2301,
    "prob_p2": 0.7699,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7699,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 473,
      "utr_singles": 13.75,
      "utr_ranking": 529,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.75,
      "ranking": 529,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6764705882352942,
    "utr_p2": 0.8588235294117648,
    "utr_diff": -1.5500000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 0.16279069767441862,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -660,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.50808823529411,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 47.99999999999998,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.70588235294117,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
    "utr_advantage": -10.671256454388988,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -334,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.8152899666382492,
    "rank_advantage": -396,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.455882352941174,
    "bp_converted_diff": -12.966176470588234,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.35779411764706,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8866995073891626,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.1599264705882355,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.858272058823516,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.29411764705882354,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.867090235221784,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.241332851917006,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -15.349878394367543,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.904761904761905,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -9.637316176470584,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.53125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 35.028999999999996,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.5430588235294117,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.3335,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.973544973544972,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}