Kyrian Jacquet vs Jacob Fearnley
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Quarterfinals
30 Ene 2026, 16:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Kyrian …: 42,2% Jacob …: 57,8%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 14,63 vs 15,30 (-0,67) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Kyrian … Jacob … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,80 52,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,37 1,73 42,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Kyrian …: -6,3% Jacob …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Kyrian Jacquet
Ranking #128
UTR Rating 14,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #145
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -51,0000
rank_ratio 0,6016
log_rank_ratio -0,5082
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -275,0000
best_rank_diff -79,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,1711
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 11,1111
surface_matches_ratio 1,1875
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 68,4211
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 66,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 38,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3684
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,2596
first_serve_won_diff 3,7196
second_serve_won_diff -4,6633
bp_saved_diff 1,2414
bp_converted_diff 9,1961
aces_per_match_diff -0,8602
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 5,1050
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8867
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7692
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6250
serve_consistency_p1 4,8349
serve_consistency_p2 3,6840
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -6,1856
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2352
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0115
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6700
utr_p1 0,7800
utr_p2 0,8588
utr_advantage -4,4771
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24575
API ID 15403382
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status scheduled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24575,
    "api_id": 15403382,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Kyrian Jacquet",
    "player2": "Jacob Fearnley",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-30T12:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "scheduled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.86,
      "p2": 1.85
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4219,
    "prob_p2": 0.5781,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5781,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 128,
      "utr_singles": 14.63,
      "utr_ranking": 145,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.63,
      "ranking": 145,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7800000000000001,
    "utr_p2": 0.8588235294117648,
    "utr_diff": -0.6699999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6015625,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -275,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.2414473684210634,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 68.42105263157895,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
    "utr_advantage": -4.477113264283327,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -79,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5082248420659333,
    "rank_advantage": -51,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7692307692307693,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.171052631578945,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.19605263157895,
    "p1_surface_matches": 38,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.2596052631578942,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8866995073891626,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8601973684210522,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.719572368421055,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3684210526315789,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.834880492205535,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.6839831421599527,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -6.185631301460371,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.663322368421056,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 5.105000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.23521052631578954,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.011499999999999955,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.1111111111111,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}