Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
Australian Open | Hard | Final
31 Ene 2026, 12:30
31 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Aryna …: 49,7%
Elena …: 50,3%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,98
(-0,01)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Elena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,38 | 61,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,57 | 2,30 | 63,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,01 | 1,99 | 49,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: -9,8%
Elena …: +9,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 4,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6094 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 5140,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 7,5325 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 6,3375 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7636 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,2712 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -8,7634 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,7378 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,2629 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,4665 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,6455 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,9078 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 4,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,4821 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8980 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6471 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,0804 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,2908 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 12,1230 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3531 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2858 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5847 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5859 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,0771 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24582
API ID
15345476
Gamdom ID
589774
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
scheduled
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24582,
"api_id": 15345476,
"gamdom_id": 589774,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Elena Rybakina",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2026-01-31T08:30:00+00:00",
"status": "scheduled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.57,
"p2": 2.3
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4965,
"prob_p2": 0.5035,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5035,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
"utr_p2": 0.5858823529411765,
"utr_diff": -0.009999999999999787,
"rank_ratio": 5.0,
"h2h_matches": 4,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 5140,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.4664502164502125,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.18181818181819,
"utr_advantage": -0.07707129094412167,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.6094379124341003,
"rank_advantage": 4,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 7.532467532467521,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.645497835497835,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 55,
"serve_quality_diff": -8.763359307359309,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8979591836734694,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.9077922077922076,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.737835497835491,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.48209200217495624,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.08039894650344,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.290817047135067,
"surface_rank_synergy": 12.123038820932166,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.26285714285715045,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7636363636363637,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3531428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28581818181818186,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.3375092114959415,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}