Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
Australian Open | Hard | Final
31 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Aryna …: 49,7% Elena …: 50,3%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,98 (-0,01) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Elena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,38 61,7%
Gamdom 1,57 2,30 63,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,01 1,99 49,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: -9,8% Elena …: +9,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 4,0000
rank_ratio 5,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,6094
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 5140,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 7,5325
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,3375
surface_matches_ratio 0,7636
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 78,1818
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,2712
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -8,7634
first_serve_won_diff -5,7378
second_serve_won_diff -0,2629
bp_saved_diff 2,4665
bp_converted_diff 3,6455
aces_per_match_diff -2,9078
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 4,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,4821
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8980
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6471
serve_consistency_p1 8,0804
serve_consistency_p2 5,2908
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 12,1230
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3531
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2858
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0100
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,5859
utr_advantage -0,0771
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24582
API ID 15345476
Gamdom ID 589774
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status scheduled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24582,
    "api_id": 15345476,
    "gamdom_id": 589774,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Elena Rybakina",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-31T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "scheduled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.57,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4965,
    "prob_p2": 0.5035,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5035,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.5858823529411765,
    "utr_diff": -0.009999999999999787,
    "rank_ratio": 5.0,
    "h2h_matches": 4,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 5140,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.4664502164502125,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.18181818181819,
    "utr_advantage": -0.07707129094412167,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6094379124341003,
    "rank_advantage": 4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 7.532467532467521,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.645497835497835,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": -8.763359307359309,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8979591836734694,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.9077922077922076,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.737835497835491,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.48209200217495624,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.08039894650344,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.290817047135067,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 12.123038820932166,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.26285714285715045,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7636363636363637,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3531428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28581818181818186,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.3375092114959415,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}