Ugo Blanchet vs Luca Nardi
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Quarterfinals
30 Ene 2026, 18:00
30 Ene 2026, 18:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Luca Nardi
Ugo …: 49,2%
Luca …: 50,8%
¿Por qué Luca Nardi?
UTR 14,53 vs 14,59
(-0,06)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ugo … | Luca … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,62 | 45,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,03 | 1,97 | 49,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Ugo …: +6,8%
Luca …: -6,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ugo Blanchet
Ranking
#142
UTR Rating
14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#161
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#108
UTR Rating
14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#145
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -34,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7606 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2737 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -126,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -72,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,3415 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,6410 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8537 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,9744 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 53,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,3760 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,8999 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,2006 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,9658 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,1338 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,2829 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 7,7730 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7943 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,4842 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8655 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,9295 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,7356 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1340 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0026 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7682 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7753 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,4121 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24583
API ID
15403387
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
scheduled
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24583,
"api_id": 15403387,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Ugo Blanchet",
"player2": "Luca Nardi",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-30T14:00:00+00:00",
"status": "scheduled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.31,
"p2": 1.56
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4921,
"prob_p2": 0.5079,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5079,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 142,
"utr_singles": 14.53,
"utr_ranking": 161,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 108,
"utr_singles": 14.59,
"utr_ranking": 145,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.53,
"ranking": 161,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.59,
"ranking": 145,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7752941176470588,
"utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 0.7605633802816901,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": -126,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.9657839721254291,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.65853658536586,
"utr_advantage": -0.41208791208791556,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -72,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.27369583047704105,
"rank_advantage": -34,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.341463414634141,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.133797909407662,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.375986062717772,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7943262411347518,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.4842105263157895,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.2829268292682925,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.8999303135888397,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.865528427361256,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.929527458612397,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.7356320957080638,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.200557491289196,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8536585365853658,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 7.772999999999982,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.134,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.002585365853658539,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.641025641025642,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}