Otto Virtanen vs Stefano Travaglia
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Quarterfinals
30 Ene 2026, 18:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefano Travaglia
Otto …: 48,3% Stefano …: 51,7%
¿Por qué Stefano Travaglia?
UTR 14,87 vs 14,53 (+0,34) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Otto … Stefano … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,38 65,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,07 1,94 48,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Otto …: -12,5% Stefano …: +12,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Otto Virtanen
Ranking #126
UTR Rating 14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking #100
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/30 = 53,3%
Stefano Travaglia
Ranking #191
UTR Rating 14,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #165
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 7/12 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 65,0000
rank_ratio 1,5159
log_rank_ratio 0,4160
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 180,0000
best_rank_diff -31,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,4154
surface_matches_ratio 2,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,3333
surface_wr_p2 58,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 52,9412
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,2500
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0667
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,7300
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,8893
first_serve_won_diff -1,8367
second_serve_won_diff -1,1967
bp_saved_diff 10,2833
bp_converted_diff 3,0167
aces_per_match_diff 3,0833
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,6800
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5962
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 7,5731
serve_consistency_p2 5,7404
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,0800
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0317
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1483
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3400
utr_p1 0,8082
utr_p2 0,7682
utr_advantage 2,3129
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24584
API ID 15403383
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status scheduled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24584,
    "api_id": 15403383,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Otto Virtanen",
    "player2": "Stefano Travaglia",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-30T14:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "scheduled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.52,
      "p2": 2.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4834,
    "prob_p2": 0.5166,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5166,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 126,
      "utr_singles": 14.87,
      "utr_ranking": 100,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 191,
      "utr_singles": 14.53,
      "utr_ranking": 165,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.87,
      "ranking": 100,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.53,
      "ranking": 165,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_p2": 0.768235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.33999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5158730158730158,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 180,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.283333333333331,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 2.3129251700680262,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -31,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.41599152109515186,
    "rank_advantage": 65,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.0166666666666657,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.889333333333326,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5961538461538461,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.083333333333333,
    "combined_confidence": 0.73,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.8366666666666873,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.06666666666666667,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.573071240577236,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.7403655986166715,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.079957605475759,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.1966666666666725,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.680000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03166666666666662,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14833333333333332,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.4154411764705856,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}