Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
Australian Open | Hard | Final
01 Feb 2026, 12:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 70,8% Novak …: 29,2%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 16,01 (+0,27) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Novak … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,26 4,20 79,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,41 3,43 70,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: -2,1% Novak …: +2,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Novak Djokovic
Ranking #3
UTR Rating 16,01 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 21/28 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 3,0000
rank_ratio 4,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,3863
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 7270,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,0465
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,7336
surface_matches_ratio 1,5357
surface_tournaments_won_diff 4,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,8750
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,4465
first_serve_won_diff -0,8372
second_serve_won_diff 1,6070
bp_saved_diff -1,0372
bp_converted_diff -0,7581
aces_per_match_diff -2,2550
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5958
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1065
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 3,4260
serve_consistency_p2 11,0393
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 15,3137
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3575
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2530
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2700
utr_p1 0,9788
utr_p2 0,9471
utr_advantage 1,6682
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 24667
API ID 15345300
Gamdom ID 589691
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 24667,
    "api_id": 15345300,
    "gamdom_id": 589691,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Novak Djokovic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-02-01T08:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.26,
      "p2": 4.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.41
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7081,
    "prob_p2": 0.2919,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7081,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 3,
      "utr_singles": 16.01,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 16.01,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.9470588235294118,
    "utr_diff": 0.2699999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 4.0,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 7270,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.0372093023255786,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.6682113067655207,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.3862943611198906,
    "rank_advantage": 3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.04651162790698,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.7581395348837177,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.446478405315602,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.106508875739645,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.254983388704318,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.8372093023255758,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5958298677722128,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.426044358090291,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.03931019007172,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 15.313716779812749,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.875,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.6069767441860492,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5357142857142858,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.35746511627906985,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.253,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.733599290780143,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}