Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Semifinals
31 Ene 2026, 19:10
31 Ene 2026, 19:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Otto Virtanen
Luca …: 37,9%
Otto …: 62,1%
¿Por qué Otto Virtanen?
UTR 14,57 vs 14,87
(-0,28)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luca … | Otto … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,10 | 59,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,64 | 1,61 | 37,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luca …: -17,8%
Otto …: +17,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#106
UTR Rating
14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#159
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Otto Virtanen
Ranking
#116
UTR Rating
14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking
#103
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
16/30 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,1667 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,1542 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 73,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 24,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,3252 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,3922 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,9412 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0732 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -16,0094 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,6971 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,9834 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,5171 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,1805 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,1829 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 1,5690 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4842 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5962 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,9310 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,4355 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0501 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0186 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0513 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8082 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,9009 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
24670
API ID
15403377
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Manama, Bahrain
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 24670,
"api_id": 15403377,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Luca Nardi",
"player2": "Otto Virtanen",
"tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-31T15:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.89,
"p2": 1.84
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3794,
"prob_p2": 0.6206,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6206,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 106,
"utr_singles": 14.57,
"utr_ranking": 159,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 116,
"utr_singles": 14.87,
"utr_ranking": 103,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.57,
"ranking": 159,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.87,
"ranking": 103,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7752941176470588,
"utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
"utr_diff": -0.27999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 1.1666666666666667,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 73,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.517073170731713,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": -1.9008825526137092,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 24,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.15415067982725836,
"rank_advantage": 18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 0.325203252032523,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.180487804878048,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": -16.009414634146324,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5961538461538461,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.182926829268293,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.6970731707316844,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.931014190720177,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.435487573785372,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.05013030238284866,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.983414634146335,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 1.5689999999999884,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.018585365853658553,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05133333333333334,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.39215686274509665,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}