Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Luca Nardi
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 32
04 Feb 2026, 15:00
04 Feb 2026, 15:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Nikoloz …: 51,8%
Luca …: 48,2%
¿Por qué Nikoloz Basilashvili?
UTR 14,51 vs 14,57
(-0,05)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Nikoloz … | Luca … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,50 | 38,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,30 | 1,63 | 43,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,93 | 2,07 | 51,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Nikoloz …: +15,5%
Luca …: -15,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Ranking
#137
UTR Rating
14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking
#171
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/33 = 63,6%
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#106
UTR Rating
14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#159
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0286 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0282 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 12,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 51,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,9778 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,8288 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8049 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,6364 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 53,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2727 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,6834 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,3132 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,7119 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,2254 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,2956 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,7132 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -1,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -80,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -60,8590 | |
| current_streak_diff | -6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 20,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7660 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,4842 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5556 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 15,8474 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,9310 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,2811 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1334 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0396 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7694 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7753 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,3433 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25062
API ID
15459225
Gamdom ID
648649
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25062,
"api_id": 15459225,
"gamdom_id": 648649,
"player1": "Nikoloz Basilashvili",
"player2": "Luca Nardi",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-02-04T11:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.63
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.23,
"p2": 1.64
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.518,
"prob_p2": 0.482,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.518,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 137,
"utr_singles": 14.51,
"utr_ranking": 171,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.63636363636363,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 106,
"utr_singles": 14.57,
"utr_ranking": 159,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 171,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.57,
"ranking": 159,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7752941176470588,
"utr_diff": -0.05000000000000071,
"rank_ratio": 1.0285714285714285,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 12,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.2253510716925149,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -1.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -79.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.63636363636363,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.65853658536586,
"utr_advantage": -0.34328870580158405,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 51,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.028170876966696224,
"rank_advantage": 3,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -4,
"surface_wr_diff": 9.977827050997774,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.295639320029565,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.683414634146331,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7659574468085106,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.4842105263157895,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.713229859571323,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -6,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.31322985957133653,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2727272727272727,
"serve_consistency_p1": 15.847393991289971,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.931014190720177,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.2810841382486317,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.711899482631189,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8048780487804879,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -60.858999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 20,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13336363636363635,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03958536585365857,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.828828828828826,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}