Luca Nardi vs Kyrian Jacquet
Manama, Bahrain | Hard | Final
01 Feb 2026, 19:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Kyrian Jacquet
Luca …: 33,9% Kyrian …: 66,1%
¿Por qué Kyrian Jacquet?
UTR 14,57 vs 14,82 (-0,04) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luca … Kyrian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,73 50,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,95 1,51 33,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Luca …: -12,5% Kyrian …: +12,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking #106
UTR Rating 14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #159
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Kyrian Jacquet
Ranking #102
UTR Rating 14,82 Pro
UTR Ranking #117
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 20,0000
rank_ratio 1,1852
log_rank_ratio 0,1699
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 84,0000
best_rank_diff 61,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,7625
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,3333
surface_matches_ratio 1,0789
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,6585
surface_wr_p2 68,4211
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0732
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,4913
first_serve_won_diff -1,6960
second_serve_won_diff -4,7845
bp_saved_diff -3,8960
bp_converted_diff -2,9015
aces_per_match_diff -1,6040
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4842
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7692
serve_consistency_p1 9,2634
serve_consistency_p2 6,6661
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,5081
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0166
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2042
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0400
utr_p1 0,7753
utr_p2 0,7800
utr_advantage -0,2738
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25117
API ID 15403385
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Manama, Bahrain
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25117,
    "api_id": 15403385,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Luca Nardi",
    "player2": "Kyrian Jacquet",
    "tournament": "Manama, Bahrain",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-02-01T15:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.73
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.9,
      "p2": 1.82
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.339,
    "prob_p2": 0.661,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.661,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 106,
      "utr_singles": 14.57,
      "utr_ranking": 159,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 102,
      "utr_singles": 14.82,
      "utr_ranking": 117,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.57,
      "ranking": 159,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.82,
      "ranking": 117,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7752941176470588,
    "utr_p2": 0.7800000000000001,
    "utr_diff": -0.040000000000000924,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1851851851851851,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 84,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.8960205391527793,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
    "utr_advantage": -0.27378507871321645,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 61,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.16989903679539742,
    "rank_advantage": 20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7692307692307693,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.762516046213086,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.9015404364569974,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.491309370988446,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.6039794608472406,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.6960205391527552,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.263432808464591,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.666110094623079,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.508137256928202,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.784467265725283,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0789473684210527,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.01658536585365855,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2042105263157895,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.333333333333321,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}