Juan Estevez vs Valentin Garay
Rosario, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Round 1
01 Feb 2026, 22:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Estevez
Juan …: 53,3% Valentin …: 46,7%
¿Por qué Juan Estevez?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (37%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Valentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,08 7,00 92,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,88 2,14 53,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: -33,3% Valentin …: +33,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Estevez
Ranking #449
UTR Rating 13,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #390
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (5p)
WR Clay 3/10 = 30,0%
Valentin Garay
Ranking #-
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 45,0000
rank_ratio 1,0989
log_rank_ratio 0,0943
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 99,0000
best_rank_diff 45,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 30,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,2381
surface_matches_ratio 10,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 30,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 35,7143
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 42,7800
first_serve_won_diff 56,8000
second_serve_won_diff 42,6000
bp_saved_diff 59,8000
bp_converted_diff 35,4000
aces_per_match_diff 0,8000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,1000
last3_wr_diff 0,1667
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 18,5000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 18,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 11,8984
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,8293
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2450
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4550
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7024
utr_p2 0,7024
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25121
API ID 15460635
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Rosario, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25121,
    "api_id": 15460635,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Estevez",
    "player2": "Valentin Garay",
    "tournament": "Rosario, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-02-01T18:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0833333333333333,
      "p2": 7.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.05,
      "p2": 8.6
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5329,
    "prob_p2": 0.4671,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5329,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 449,
      "utr_singles": 13.97,
      "utr_ranking": 390,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.97,
      "ranking": 390,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7023529411764706,
    "utr_p2": 0.7023529411764706,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.098901098901099,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 99,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 59.8,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.16666666666666663,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.09999999999999998,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 45,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.09431067947124142,
    "rank_advantage": 45,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 30.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 35.4,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 42.78,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 56.8,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.898368121366541,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.8293203841372425,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.714285714285715,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 42.6,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 10.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 18.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 18,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.24499999999999994,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.45500000000000007,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.238095238095238,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}