Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 00:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tomas Machac
Arthur …: 17,8% Tomas …: 82,2%
¿Por qué Tomas Machac?
UTR 14,95 vs 15,33 (-0,38) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Arthur … Tomas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 2,80 1,44 35,7%
IA Fair Odds 5,63 1,22 17,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Arthur …: -14,1% Tomas …: +14,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Gea
Ranking #168
UTR Rating 14,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #98
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 5/12 = 41,7%
Tomas Machac
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking #43
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -174,0000
rank_ratio 0,1212
log_rank_ratio -2,1102
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1310,0000
best_rank_diff -177,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,9540
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -9,8624
surface_matches_ratio 0,4138
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,6667
surface_wr_p2 58,6207
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,5758
p1_surface_matches 12,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4600
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,7133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,9073
first_serve_won_diff 0,1247
second_serve_won_diff -6,7761
bp_saved_diff 1,3316
bp_converted_diff -16,7083
aces_per_match_diff -2,4684
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -0,9500
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 11,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0582
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 8,8455
serve_consistency_p2 7,6779
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 35,7766
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0907
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0878
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3800
utr_p1 0,8176
utr_p2 0,8624
utr_advantage -2,5099
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25329
API ID 15441189
Gamdom ID 638739
Torneo Montpellier
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25329,
    "api_id": 15441189,
    "gamdom_id": 638739,
    "player1": "Arthur Gea",
    "player2": "Tomas Machac",
    "tournament": "Montpellier",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-04T20:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.8,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.81,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1776,
    "prob_p2": 0.8224,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8224,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 168,
      "utr_singles": 14.95,
      "utr_ranking": 98,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 15.33,
      "utr_ranking": 43,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.95,
      "ranking": 98,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.33,
      "ranking": 43,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8176470588235293,
    "utr_p2": 0.8623529411764705,
    "utr_diff": -0.3800000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 0.12121212121212122,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -1310,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.331609195402308,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.46,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
    "utr_advantage": -2.5099075297225943,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -177,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.1102132003465894,
    "rank_advantage": -174,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -16.954022988505734,
    "bp_converted_diff": -16.70833333333334,
    "p1_surface_matches": 12,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.907270114942527,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.4683908045977017,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7133333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.12471264367816559,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.845535627412708,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.677947029136491,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 35.776603109324334,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.776149425287365,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.41379310344827586,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -0.9499999999999886,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09066666666666678,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08779310344827596,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.862373737373739,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}