Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 00:45
05 Feb 2026, 00:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tomas Machac
Arthur …: 17,8%
Tomas …: 82,2%
¿Por qué Tomas Machac?
UTR 14,95 vs 15,33
(-0,38)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Arthur … | Tomas … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,80 | 1,44 | 35,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,63 | 1,22 | 17,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Arthur …: -14,1%
Tomas …: +14,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Gea
Ranking
#168
UTR Rating
14,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#98
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
5/12 = 41,7%
Tomas Machac
Ranking
#28
UTR Rating
15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#43
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -174,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1212 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,1102 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1310,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -177,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -16,9540 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -9,8624 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4138 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 41,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,5758 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7133 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,9073 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,1247 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,7761 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,3316 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -16,7083 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,4684 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -0,9500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 11,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0582 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6429 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8455 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,6779 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 35,7766 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0907 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0878 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8176 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8624 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,5099 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25329
API ID
15441189
Gamdom ID
638739
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25329,
"api_id": 15441189,
"gamdom_id": 638739,
"player1": "Arthur Gea",
"player2": "Tomas Machac",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-02-04T20:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.8,
"p2": 1.44
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.81,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1776,
"prob_p2": 0.8224,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8224,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 168,
"utr_singles": 14.95,
"utr_ranking": 98,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 28,
"utr_singles": 15.33,
"utr_ranking": 43,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 98,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 43,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8623529411764705,
"utr_diff": -0.3800000000000008,
"rank_ratio": 0.12121212121212122,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -1310,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.331609195402308,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.46,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
"utr_advantage": -2.5099075297225943,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -177,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.1102132003465894,
"rank_advantage": -174,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -16.954022988505734,
"bp_converted_diff": -16.70833333333334,
"p1_surface_matches": 12,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.907270114942527,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.4683908045977017,
"combined_confidence": 0.7133333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.12471264367816559,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.845535627412708,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.677947029136491,
"surface_rank_synergy": 35.776603109324334,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.776149425287365,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.41379310344827586,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -0.9499999999999886,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09066666666666678,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08779310344827596,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.862373737373739,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}