Juan Estevez vs Andrea Pellegrino
Rosario, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
03 Feb 2026, 22:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Andrea Pellegrino
Juan …: 11,6% Andrea …: 88,4%
¿Por qué Andrea Pellegrino?
UTR 13,97 vs 14,39 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Andrea … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 59,9%
IA Fair Odds 8,61 1,13 11,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: -44,1% Andrea …: +44,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Estevez
Ranking #449
UTR Rating 13,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #390
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 71% (7p)
WR Clay 3/10 = 30,0%
Andrea Pellegrino
Ranking #143
UTR Rating 14,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #206
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Clay 28/45 = 62,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -306,0000
rank_ratio 0,3185
log_rank_ratio -1,1442
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -329,0000
best_rank_diff -329,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -32,2222
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,2823
surface_matches_ratio 0,2222
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 30,0000
surface_wr_p2 62,2222
surface_wr_p1_stable 35,7143
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,2245
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 45,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,3144
first_serve_won_diff -7,1000
second_serve_won_diff -14,4000
bp_saved_diff -5,2000
bp_converted_diff -0,8000
aces_per_match_diff -1,2222
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff 70,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 51,4500
current_streak_diff 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 22,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6875
serve_consistency_p1 2,9518
serve_consistency_p2 8,6939
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 36,8680
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1060
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1838
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,7024
utr_p2 0,7518
utr_advantage -2,9619
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25339
API ID 15470912
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Rosario, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25339,
    "api_id": 15470912,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Estevez",
    "player2": "Andrea Pellegrino",
    "tournament": "Rosario, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-02-03T18:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.09,
      "p2": 1.68
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1161,
    "prob_p2": 0.8839,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8839,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 449,
      "utr_singles": 13.97,
      "utr_ranking": 390,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 71.42857142857143,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 143,
      "utr_singles": 14.39,
      "utr_ranking": 206,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.22222222222222,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 45,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.97,
      "ranking": 390,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.39,
      "ranking": 206,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7023529411764706,
    "utr_p2": 0.751764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3184855233853007,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": -329,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.200000000000003,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 70.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.22222222222222,
    "utr_advantage": -2.961918194640338,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -329,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.144178257482347,
    "rank_advantage": -306,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6875,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -32.22222222222222,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.8000000000000043,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 45,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.31444444444444,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.222222222222222,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.100000000000001,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.951812684417615,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.693944730783235,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 36.86796607443118,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.714285714285715,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.224489795918366,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -14.399999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 51.45,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 22,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10600000000000004,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.18377777777777782,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.282312925170068,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}