Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Guido Ivan Justo
Rosario, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
04 Feb 2026, 02:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Camilo …: 74,1% Guido …: 25,9%
¿Por qué Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
UTR 14,78 vs 13,96 (+0,82) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Camilo … Guido … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,28 3,50 78,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,35 3,87 74,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Camilo …: +0,9% Guido …: -0,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking #48
UTR Rating 14,78 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Clay 22/36 = 61,1%
Guido Ivan Justo
Ranking #336
UTR Rating 13,96 Pro
UTR Ranking #402
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Clay 16/31 = 51,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 288,0000
rank_ratio 7,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,9459
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 881,0000
best_rank_diff 301,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 9,4982
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,5714
surface_matches_ratio 1,1613
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 61,1111
surface_wr_p2 51,6129
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,4286
p1_surface_matches 36,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2222
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,3552
first_serve_won_diff 6,5000
second_serve_won_diff -2,2000
bp_saved_diff 7,3000
bp_converted_diff -7,5000
aces_per_match_diff 0,8826
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 2,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -70,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -45,1050
current_streak_diff -6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 16,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5417
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 10,2515
serve_consistency_p2 5,2479
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 18,4827
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1769
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,3041
elite_surface_amplifier 28,4946
UTR
utr_diff 0,8200
utr_p1 0,7976
utr_p2 0,7012
utr_advantage 5,7063
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25341
API ID 15470913
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Rosario, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25341,
    "api_id": 15470913,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
    "player2": "Guido Ivan Justo",
    "tournament": "Rosario, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-02-03T22:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7414,
    "prob_p2": 0.2586,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7414,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 48,
      "utr_singles": 14.78,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.111111111111114,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 336,
      "utr_singles": 13.96,
      "utr_ranking": 402,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.61290322580645,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.78,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.96,
      "ranking": 402,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7976470588235294,
    "utr_p2": 0.7011764705882354,
    "utr_diff": 0.8199999999999985,
    "rank_ratio": 7.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 2.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 881,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.299999999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -70.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 61.111111111111114,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.61290322580645,
    "utr_advantage": 5.706332637439099,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 301,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.9459101490553132,
    "rank_advantage": 288,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 9.498207885304666,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.5,
    "p1_surface_matches": 36,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.355232974910393,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5416666666666666,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8826164874551969,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2222222222222222,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.251511830879537,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.247896611972013,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 18.482659121851555,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.42857142857142,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.200000000000003,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1612903225806452,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -45.105000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 28.494623655913998,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 16,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17688888888888887,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.30412903225806454,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.571428571428577,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}