Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pablo Carreño Busta
Tallon …: 43,5% Pablo …: 56,5%
¿Por qué Pablo Carreño Busta?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tallon … Pablo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,38 63,7%
Gamdom 1,63 2,29 61,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,30 1,77 43,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Tallon …: -16,7% Pablo …: +16,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tallon Griekspoor
Ranking #29
UTR Rating 15,15 Pro
UTR Ranking #65
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 15/31 = 48,4%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking #100
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 71,0000
rank_ratio 3,4483
log_rank_ratio 1,2379
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 949,0000
best_rank_diff -11,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,0340
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,0952
surface_matches_ratio 0,8158
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,3871
surface_wr_p2 68,4211
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 14,8994
first_serve_won_diff 5,1035
second_serve_won_diff 0,7458
bp_saved_diff 6,5939
bp_converted_diff -10,1759
aces_per_match_diff 6,0620
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff -42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -35,7000
current_streak_diff -6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 15,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7363
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8571
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6522
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 8,7001
serve_consistency_p2 6,5744
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -24,7995
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0871
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2552
elite_surface_amplifier -20,0340
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8412
utr_p2 0,8412
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25360
API ID 15441211
Gamdom ID 638737
Torneo Montpellier
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25360,
    "api_id": 15441211,
    "gamdom_id": 638737,
    "player1": "Tallon Griekspoor",
    "player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
    "tournament": "Montpellier",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-05T13:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5699999999999998,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.29
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.64,
      "p2": 2.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4351,
    "prob_p2": 0.5649,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5649,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 29,
      "utr_singles": 15.15,
      "utr_ranking": 65,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 100,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.15,
      "ranking": 65,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8411764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
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    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 949,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.59388794567063,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -42.00000000000001,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -11,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.2378743560016172,
    "rank_advantage": 71,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6521739130434783,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.033955857385394,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.175891341256364,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": 14.899431239388804,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7362637362637363,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 6.061969439728353,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.103480475382014,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.700058256147834,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.574391888422901,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -24.79952020512577,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.7458404074702827,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8157894736842105,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -35.70000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -20.033955857385394,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 15,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.08712903225806445,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.25521052631578944,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.095238095238088,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}