Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 17:30
05 Feb 2026, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pablo Carreño Busta
Tallon …: 43,5%
Pablo …: 56,5%
¿Por qué Pablo Carreño Busta?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tallon … | Pablo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,63 | 2,29 | 61,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,30 | 1,77 | 43,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tallon …: -16,7%
Pablo …: +16,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tallon Griekspoor
Ranking
#29
UTR Rating
15,15 Pro
UTR Ranking
#65
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
15/31 = 48,4%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking
#100
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 71,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,4483 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,2379 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 949,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -11,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,0340 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -18,0952 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8158 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 68,4211 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0323 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 14,8994 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,1035 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,7458 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,5939 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,1759 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 6,0620 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -42,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -35,7000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 15,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7363 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8571 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6522 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,7001 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,5744 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -24,7995 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0871 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2552 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -20,0340 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25360
API ID
15441211
Gamdom ID
638737
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25360,
"api_id": 15441211,
"gamdom_id": 638737,
"player1": "Tallon Griekspoor",
"player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-02-05T13:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.63,
"p2": 2.29
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.64,
"p2": 2.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4351,
"prob_p2": 0.5649,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5649,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 29,
"utr_singles": 15.15,
"utr_ranking": 65,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 100,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.15,
"ranking": 65,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 3.4482758620689653,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 949,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.59388794567063,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -42.00000000000001,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
"surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -11,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.2378743560016172,
"rank_advantage": 71,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6521739130434783,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.033955857385394,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.175891341256364,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 38,
"serve_quality_diff": 14.899431239388804,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7362637362637363,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
"aces_per_match_diff": 6.061969439728353,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -6,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.103480475382014,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.700058256147834,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.574391888422901,
"surface_rank_synergy": -24.79952020512577,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.7458404074702827,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8157894736842105,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -35.70000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -20.033955857385394,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 15,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.08712903225806445,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.25521052631578944,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.095238095238088,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}