Martin Damm Jr vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
04 Feb 2026, 16:20
04 Feb 2026, 16:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Martin Damm Jr
Martin …: 83,0%
Roberto …: 17,0%
¿Por qué Martin Damm Jr?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Martin … | Roberto … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,80 | 50,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,66 | 2,23 | 60,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,20 | 5,90 | 83,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Martin …: +35,7%
Roberto …: -35,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Martin Damm Jr
Ranking
#160
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
15/23 = 65,2%
Roberto Bautista Agut
Ranking
#89
UTR Rating
15,25 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
4/14 = 28,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -71,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5563 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5865 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -297,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -164,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 36,6460 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 18,5679 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6429 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 28,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,9630 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6267 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 28,4182 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 11,8016 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 9,2404 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,4634 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,9354 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 9,8727 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 52,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 41,4640 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,5625 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5672 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,0895 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,1541 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -21,4942 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2232 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2853 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8529 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8529 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25361
API ID
15441194
Gamdom ID
638735
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25361,
"api_id": 15441194,
"gamdom_id": 638735,
"player1": "Martin Damm Jr",
"player2": "Roberto Bautista Agut",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-02-04T12:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.66,
"p2": 2.23
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.61,
"p2": 2.41
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8304,
"prob_p2": 0.1696,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8304,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 160,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 89,
"utr_singles": 15.25,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 28.57142857142857,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.25,
"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8529411764705882,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.55625,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -297,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.4633540372670808,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 52.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
"surface_wr_p2": 28.57142857142857,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -164,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5865374455016871,
"rank_advantage": -71,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 36.64596273291926,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.935403726708071,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 28.418229813664595,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.5625,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5671641791044776,
"aces_per_match_diff": 9.872670807453417,
"combined_confidence": 0.6266666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 11.801552795031057,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.089518174694196,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.1541317097205313,
"surface_rank_synergy": -21.494229369316486,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.96296296296296,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": 9.24037267080746,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6428571428571428,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 41.464,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.22317391304347822,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.28528571428571425,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 18.567901234567906,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}