Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
04 Feb 2026, 21:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ugo Humbert
Ugo …: 71,5% Adrian …: 28,5%
¿Por qué Ugo Humbert?
UTR 15,47 vs 15,23 (+0,24) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ugo … Adrian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,17 5,00 85,5%
Gamdom 1,18 5,00 84,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,40 3,50 71,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Ugo …: -9,6% Adrian …: +9,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ugo Humbert
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking #24
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/29 = 62,1%
Adrian Mannarino
Ranking #70
UTR Rating 15,23 Pro
UTR Ranking #57
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 15/36 = 41,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 32,0000
rank_ratio 1,8421
log_rank_ratio 0,6109
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 510,0000
best_rank_diff 4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 20,4023
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 17,8043
surface_matches_ratio 0,8056
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,0690
surface_wr_p2 41,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,6061
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,5000
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 36,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2414
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,4613
first_serve_won_diff 6,6483
second_serve_won_diff 3,6500
bp_saved_diff 0,4115
bp_converted_diff -1,8845
aces_per_match_diff 3,5211
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,8950
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7136
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7532
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0909
serve_consistency_p1 3,9685
serve_consistency_p2 10,4278
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 12,4639
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0887
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0513
elite_surface_amplifier 20,4023
UTR
utr_diff 0,2400
utr_p1 0,8788
utr_p2 0,8506
utr_advantage 1,5635
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25369
API ID 15441200
Gamdom ID 638725
Torneo Montpellier
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25369,
    "api_id": 15441200,
    "gamdom_id": 638725,
    "player1": "Ugo Humbert",
    "player2": "Adrian Mannarino",
    "tournament": "Montpellier",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-04T17:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.17,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 4.69
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7145,
    "prob_p2": 0.2855,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7145,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.47,
      "utr_ranking": 24,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.06896551724138,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": 15.23,
      "utr_ranking": 57,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.47,
      "ranking": 24,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.23,
      "ranking": 57,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8505882352941176,
    "utr_diff": 0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 1.8421052631578947,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 510,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.41149425287355257,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.06896551724138,
    "surface_wr_p2": 41.66666666666667,
    "utr_advantage": 1.5635179153094474,
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    "best_rank_diff": 4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6109090823229731,
    "rank_advantage": 32,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.09090909090909091,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 20.40229885057471,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.884482758620699,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 36,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.461283524904218,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7135678391959799,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7531645569620253,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.521072796934866,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.648275862068985,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2413793103448276,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.968515086595915,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.427789236641406,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 12.463949668083645,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.60606060606061,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.6500000000000057,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8055555555555556,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.895000000000003,
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    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08868965517241378,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05133333333333323,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.804292929292934,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}