Juan Manuel La Serna vs Hugo Dellien
Rosario, Argentina | Clay | Round of 16
06 Feb 2026, 22:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Hugo Dellien
Juan …: 23,1% Hugo …: 76,9%
¿Por qué Hugo Dellien?
UTR 13,81 vs 14,23 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Hugo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,40 36,4%
IA Fair Odds 4,33 1,30 23,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: -10,7% Hugo …: +10,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Manuel La Serna
Ranking #386
UTR Rating 13,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #494
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Clay 8/17 = 47,1%
Hugo Dellien
Ranking #149
UTR Rating 14,23 Pro
UTR Ranking #266
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Clay 23/42 = 54,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -237,0000
rank_ratio 0,3860
log_rank_ratio -0,9519
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -281,0000
best_rank_diff -322,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,7031
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,2709
surface_matches_ratio 0,4048
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 47,0588
surface_wr_p2 54,7619
surface_wr_p1_stable 47,6190
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,3478
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 42,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0588
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,8552
first_serve_won_diff -2,8000
second_serve_won_diff 1,9000
bp_saved_diff -7,4000
bp_converted_diff 5,5000
aces_per_match_diff -1,5126
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff 50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 36,9300
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8269
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4444
serve_consistency_p1 5,0449
serve_consistency_p2 9,6884
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,3325
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2076
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1894
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,6835
utr_p2 0,7329
utr_advantage -2,9957
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25387
API ID 15440895
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Rosario, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25387,
    "api_id": 15440895,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Manuel La Serna",
    "player2": "Hugo Dellien",
    "tournament": "Rosario, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-06T18:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.03,
      "p2": 1.35
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2307,
    "prob_p2": 0.7693,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7693,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 386,
      "utr_singles": 13.81,
      "utr_ranking": 494,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 47.05882352941176,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 149,
      "utr_singles": 14.23,
      "utr_ranking": 266,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.761904761904766,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.81,
      "ranking": 494,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.23,
      "ranking": 266,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6835294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.7329411764705883,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3860103626943005,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -281,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.3999999999999915,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 49.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 47.05882352941176,
    "surface_wr_p2": 54.761904761904766,
    "utr_advantage": -2.995720399429386,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -322,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.9518910635193718,
    "rank_advantage": -237,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4444444444444444,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.703081232493005,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.5,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 42,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.855210084033608,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8269230769230769,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.512605042016807,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.799999999999997,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.058823529411764705,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.0449327082848825,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.688446944081539,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.33249418677388,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 47.61904761904761,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.347826086956516,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.9000000000000057,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.40476190476190477,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 36.93,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.20758823529411757,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.18938095238095232,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.270876466528641,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}